Heavy Snow Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
100 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...BROAD SSW UPPER FLOW COVERS ALL OF AK AHEAD OF
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS N OFF WRN COAST CANADA/US
FROM SUBTROPICS ALL THE WAY TO MACKENZIE BAY. LATEST LOW
ROLLING NNE FROM BERING SEA IN THIS FLOW HAS 978 MB SURFACE
REFLECTION NE OF WRANGEL ISLAND WITH TRAILING OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONTAL BAND DRAPED FROM ABOUT PAWI-PASK-PAUN-PASM.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT/MID TERM WITH
KEY FEATURES. WRN ARCTIC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TONIGHT
AND MON. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE E ACROSS N SLOPE TONIGHT.
NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR FALLING SNOW WITH IT...BUT GUSTY S-SW WINDS
WITH IT WILL BRING LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AS FAR E AS
PABR. BLIZ WARNING TONIGHT AS A RESULT FOR ZONES 201/202. GRADUAL
COOLING BACK BELOW FREEZING AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER W COAST
AND WRN ARCTIC TONIGHT/EARLY MON BEHIND THIS.

MODERATE SOUTH CHINOOK FLOW AK RANGE WILL EASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH/DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC LOW SLIDES
E. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO INTERIOR ABOUT AS FAR E
AS CYOC-PARL-PAFA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

LAST IN THE SERIES OF BERING LOWS TO AFFECT THE REGION IS FORECAST
BY MODELS TO SLIDE N OVER Y-K DELTA AND NORTON SOUND EARLY TUE...
THEN JUMP ACROSS BROOKS TO REACH ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR PASC BY 12Z
WED. THIS FURTHER ERN TRACK WILL KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE ALONG
W COAST AND NECESSITATED A BLIZ WATCH TUE FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
COULD SEE WINTER STORM ISSUES OVER SEWARD PEN AND ALL OF NWRN AK
LATER TUE INTO WED AS THIS LOW LIFTS NE. MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENING OVER AK LATE TUE/WED AND UPPER SHORT-WAVE SLIDING E
ACROSS ALL AK THEN. OVER INTERIOR...VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE FORECAST BY MODELS TUE NIGHT/WED. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
WRLY WINDS TO HIGHER TERRAIN THEN AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG
WITH TEMPS. PLUNGING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. THEREAFTER
ECMWF AND GFS SIMILAR IN ALLOWING NRN BRANCH OF JET FLOW TO KEEP
NEXT LOW S OF 60N AT 120 HRS AND BEYOND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ240.
&&

MAR JAN 08