Storm Warning 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK51 PAFG 202213
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-211500-
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 979 MB LOW 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL DRIFT
NORTH AND DISSIPATE TUE. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE
BAY TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-211500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO W 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-211500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.MON...SW WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-211500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-211500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-211500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
113 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE.
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

CF/ES JAN 08

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AST SAT JAN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
965 MB BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALMOST DUE NORTH ALONG
ABOUT 178W. THIS AS PULL A LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
NORTH...RESULTING IN NO BLIZ SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE. RAPIDLY EVOLVING
SITUATION WITH NEW LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT BY
09Z AND TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE...BIG
UPPER RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 145W FROM NORTH PACIFIC TO BEAUFORT SEA
SUPPORTING 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL YT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY DURING THE DAY
MON. THIS STORM WILL HAVE MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FIRST FEW DAYS...AND AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW...AND DRAMATIC COOL DOWN...IN THE MID
RANGE.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...VERY WARM AIR ON FRONT SIDE OF THE BERING
SEA STORM HAS BROUGHT TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE ZONES. AS A RESULT...BLIZ WATCH FOR ZONE 205 MORPHED
INTO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER..ON THE COAST BLIZ STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE COLD ADVECTION STARTS UP.

FOR THE WEST COAST...WITH LOW TRACKING SO FAR WEST...WARM AIR HAS
SPILLED IN...ENDING BLIZ THREAT BERING STRAIT SOUTH. DECENT COLD
ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT BUT PRECIP WILL BE MORE
SHOWERY AND BLIZ CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED FOR THREE
HOURS ANY ONE PLACE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE COMPROMISED WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES. BELT OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT ENOUGH IN FAVORED AREAS FOR HIGH WIND WARNING. NORTH OF THE
BERING STRAIT...MUCH CLOSER TO BLIZ NOW...AND WITH WARM AIR
GETTING...TO SOME EXTENT...PINCHED OFF. COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
COULD KEEP LOW CONDITION GOING FOR A WHILE OVERNITE.

FOR THE INTERIOR...RIDGE PRODUCING BIG WARMTH IN THE USUAL CHINOOK
PLACES...WHILE UPPER TANANA VALLEY DOWN IN THE MESO HIGH. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE USUAL ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RIDGE WILL
BE ERODED AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. SOME SNOW
WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FLOW
TURNS INCREASINGLY SWLY. QUITE A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN MID WEEK AS
COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ202.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RT JAN 08