Brisk Wind Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AST SAT JAN 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...
965 MB BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALMOST DUE NORTH ALONG
ABOUT 178W. THIS AS PULL A LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
NORTH...RESULTING IN NO BLIZ SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE. RAPIDLY EVOLVING
SITUATION WITH NEW LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT BY
09Z AND TRACKING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. MEANWHILE...BIG
UPPER RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 145W FROM NORTH PACIFIC TO BEAUFORT SEA
SUPPORTING 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL YT.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY DURING THE DAY
MON. THIS STORM WILL HAVE MORE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FIRST FEW DAYS...AND AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING ZONAL FLOW...AND DRAMATIC COOL DOWN...IN THE MID
RANGE.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...VERY WARM AIR ON FRONT SIDE OF THE BERING
SEA STORM HAS BROUGHT TEMPS UP ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME AREAS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE ZONES. AS A RESULT...BLIZ WATCH FOR ZONE 205 MORPHED
INTO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER..ON THE COAST BLIZ STILL
QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE COLD ADVECTION STARTS UP.

FOR THE WEST COAST...WITH LOW TRACKING SO FAR WEST...WARM AIR HAS
SPILLED IN...ENDING BLIZ THREAT BERING STRAIT SOUTH. DECENT COLD
ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY TONIGHT BUT PRECIP WILL BE MORE
SHOWERY AND BLIZ CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO BE SUSTAINED FOR THREE
HOURS ANY ONE PLACE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE COMPROMISED WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES. BELT OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT ENOUGH IN FAVORED AREAS FOR HIGH WIND WARNING. NORTH OF THE
BERING STRAIT...MUCH CLOSER TO BLIZ NOW...AND WITH WARM AIR
GETTING...TO SOME EXTENT...PINCHED OFF. COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT
COULD KEEP LOW CONDITION GOING FOR A WHILE OVERNITE.

FOR THE INTERIOR...RIDGE PRODUCING BIG WARMTH IN THE USUAL CHINOOK
PLACES...WHILE UPPER TANANA VALLEY DOWN IN THE MESO HIGH. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE USUAL ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RIDGE WILL
BE ERODED AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. SOME SNOW
WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FLOW
TURNS INCREASINGLY SWLY. QUITE A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN MID WEEK AS
COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ202.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RT JAN 08