Blizzard Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
628 AM AST SAT JAN 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN NOW IN PLACE WITH A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE BERING AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC WHILE A STRONG RIDGE LIES OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC AND ALASKA. THIS IS CAUSING A STRONG WARM UP AND
CHINOOK WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS
RANGE WHILE THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA HAS STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK MEANING NORTHERN ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO MORE WET PATTERN.

A 960 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF
GAMBELL AS A 972 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN AND TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AS A
978 MB LOW BY 3PM SUN. THE FRONT WITH THIS LOW NOW LIES FROM THE
LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT TO A WAVE SOUTH OF COLD BAY. THIS WILL
MOVE TO CAPE LISBURNE TO ANVIK BY 3AM SUN AND TO DEADHORSE TO
DENALI BY 3PM SUN. THERE ARE NOW GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE
WEST COAST ALONG THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
HAS BECOME MIXED OR CHANGED TO RAIN OVER ZONE 214 AND MAY OVER
ZONES 212 AND 215 TODAY AS WELL. PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL
SNOW TONIGHT. SNOW WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR. CHINOOK WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.

WILL LIKELY SEE STORM FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT POISONOUS TAIL OF THE BERING LOW OVER ZONE 213 WHICH WILL
MOVE TO THE CAPE LISBURNE AREA SUN. THOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY
ABATE SOME LATE TODAY ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS WILL BRING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS BACK AT LEAST AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS INITIALIZED THE BEST ON THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW AT 06Z.
THE NAM INITIALIZED 100 NM TOO FAR SOUTHWEST OF ACTUAL LOW CENTER
WHILE THE GFS VERIFIED WELL AT 06Z. PREFER THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS
REASON THOUGH THE ECMF AGREED WELL WITH THE GFS AS WELL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ212.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

JB JAN 08