Wind Chill Advisory 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.  GFS WAS THE CHOSEN MODEL OF
THE DAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS POSITION OVER THE
WEST COAST.  THIS RIDGE REFLECTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A
BAROTROPIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND
BRINGING COLD NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE MAINLAND.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN AND MOVING ALL THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.  A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY BE
PUSHED OFF INTO THE GULF AS THE BLOCKING HIGH PREVENTS IT FROM MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR BROAD
PASS AND THOMPSON PASS AS WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
APPROACHING THE GULF OF ALASKA.  AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN
MARINES.  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR ICY AREAS. THE BLIZZARD
WATCH THAT WAS OUT FOR KODIAK ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELED AS IT APPEARS
THAT NOT MUCH SNOW WILL REACH THE ISLAND AND THE CURRENT SNOW PACK IS
PRETTY IMMOBILE.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE EITHER. THE MAINLAND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
APPROACHES KODIAK. THESE WINDS WILL REACH STORM FORCE JUST SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BUT WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AGAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AGAIN MAINLY IN THE
COLDER AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND THE ICE EDGE. AS FOR THE
ALEUTIANS...LOOKS LIKE A CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THEM AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BRING ANYTHING STRONGER THAN GALES TO THE ALEUTIANS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED OF
COURSE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLE CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.  BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND AND A SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MAINLAND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.  THE CAVEAT HOWEVER IS THAT THE MODELS TRADITIONALLY DO
NOT HANDLE PATTERN CHANGES WELL...SO THE TIMING OF THE UPCOMING
CHANGE MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 132 150 352
         GALES...120 130 138 155 175 176 411 412 413
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...120 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150
                                160 165 185 414 351

FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF FEB 08