Small Craft Advisory 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 PM AST THU FEB 7 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE FOUR MAJOR MODELS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING INTO
THE GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS NOT
GETTING BETTER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. THE LOW IN THE WEST IS
HANDLED WELL BY ALL THE MODELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THROUGH
72 HOURS. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL OF THE BUNCH AND
THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS BEEN OFF WITH ITS SOLUTION SO THE
GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR HANDLING THE APPROACHING GULF OF
ALASKA LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THE JET STREAM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE ALASKA-CANADA BORDER AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE PERSISTS BUT
THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS WEAKENING AND CAUSE THE
WINDS AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE
COOK INLET AREA THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
IF NOT SOONER.
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR ADAK IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TO FORM A BAROCLINIC AREA OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW IN THE UNALASKA AREA. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING AS THIS AREA MOVES NORTHWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KODIAK AREA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING GULF LOW. A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR
THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE APPROACHING GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL AFFECT
THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 131 AND 135 THIS EVENING
         BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 171
MARINE...STORM 132
         GALE 120 129 130 138 150 155 172 175 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 140 141 150
                              160 165 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08