Storm Warning 55, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 081344 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  ON SATURDAY A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 370
NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK.  IT WILL WEAKEN TO 983 MB AND MOVE TO 360 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-090300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-090300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-090300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES.  SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-090300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-090300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-090300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
26 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-090300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-090300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-090300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 PM AST THU FEB 7 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GOOD BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE FOUR MAJOR MODELS AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVING INTO
THE GULF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS NOT
GETTING BETTER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. THE LOW IN THE WEST IS
HANDLED WELL BY ALL THE MODELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THROUGH
72 HOURS. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST STABLE MODEL OF THE BUNCH AND
THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS BEEN OFF WITH ITS SOLUTION SO THE
GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR HANDLING THE APPROACHING GULF OF
ALASKA LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THE JET STREAM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE ALASKA-CANADA BORDER AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE PERSISTS BUT
THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS WEAKENING AND CAUSE THE
WINDS AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS IN THE
COOK INLET AREA THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
IF NOT SOONER.
THE SURFACE LOW NEAR ADAK IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TO FORM A BAROCLINIC AREA OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW IN THE UNALASKA AREA. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING AS THIS AREA MOVES NORTHWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KODIAK AREA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING GULF LOW. A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR
THE KODIAK ISLAND AREA HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE APPROACHING GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL AFFECT
THAT AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 131 AND 135 THIS EVENING
         BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 171
MARINE...STORM 132
         GALE 120 129 130 138 150 155 172 175 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 140 141 150
                              160 165 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08