Storm Warning 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 031846 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
945 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 52N 173W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 174W MON MORNING AT
991 MB THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. A
986 MB LOW NEAR 53N 166E WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB NEAR 54N 163E MON
NIGHT. A LARGE 958 MB LOW NEAR 42N 170E MON MORNING WILL MOVE TO 48N
178W MON NIGHT AT 964 MB. 
$$

PKZ411-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
945 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
945 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 55 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-040300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
945 AM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 040029
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 985 MB LOW NEAR 55N 173W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 172W AND WEAKEN TO
997 MB MON AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT. A
991 MB LOW NEAR 54N 166E WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB AND MOVE TO 54N 163E
MON AFTERNOON. A LARGE 970 MB LOW NEAR 38N 155E WILL MOVE TO 51N 174W
TUE AFTERNOON WITH A 965 MB CENTER.
$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST SUN FEB 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF 56N...S WIND 35 KT. E WIND 35 TO 50 KT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS 14 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST WEST OF 168W. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM AST SAT FEB 2 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...USING A BLEND OF THE LAST TO RUNS OF GFS AND ADDED
A PINCH OF ECMWF IN THE MIX. MAIN PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE WITH THE EASTWARD
ELONGATING FRONT WITH THE 988 MB LOW THAT MOVES TO NIKOLSKI ON SUNDAY.
MODELS..ESPECIALLY ECMWF HAVING TROUBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON WITH
THE DEVELOPING WAVES AND TRIPLE POINT FEATURES THAT ALWAYS FORM WHEN
THESE FRONTS STRETCH OUT TO THE EAST LIKE THIS. ACTUALLY..THE LATEST
GFS RUN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN KEEPING THE PARENT LOW DEEPER AND MORE
INTACT AS IT TRACKS EAST TO 155W-160W MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED -40C TO -45C
500MB TEMPS CENTERED OVER THE YUKON VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY INTERACTING WITH GULF LOW MOISTURE AND
PRODUCING SNOW FROM ABOUT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA EASTWARD
FUNNEL WITH MODERATE SNOW AT VALDEZ. AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS EASTWARD
CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW AREA
WILL SHIFT OVER TO THE PACV-PAYA AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN. NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD TO
THE AK PEN SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAD EAST AND GRAZE SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND
WITH SOME MOISTURE BRINGING ANOTHER SNOW THREAT TO PACV EASTWARD AGAIN
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NO GRID CHANGES BEYOND 84 HOURS. UPPER HIGH ACROSS PRIBILOFS TO THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AS
UPPER TROF SHIFTS TO THE BOARDER BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN MAINLAND
LOOKS CLEAR AND COLD WITH BRISK GLF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUNDS
WINDS FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL
BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AREA DEVELOPING IN ZONE 141
AROUND MID WEEK AT WHICH TIME GULKANA MAY APPROACH 50 BELOW. MOST OF
MAINLAND FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE COLDEST FIRST 10 DAYS OF FEBRUARY
SINCE 1999.

STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS THIS NEXT WEEK BUT MORE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT MID WEEK STORM FROM ADAK
TO COLD BAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE GREATER COLD BAY AREA SUNDAY.
         WINDCHILL AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT INTO
         SUNDAY.

MARINE...GALES AREAS 120 165 170 172 176 179
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 121 129 130 141 160 165 185

PERCY FEB 08