Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM AST SAT FEB 2 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...USING A BLEND OF THE LAST TO RUNS OF GFS AND ADDED
A PINCH OF ECMWF IN THE MIX. MAIN PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE WITH THE EASTWARD
ELONGATING FRONT WITH THE 988 MB LOW THAT MOVES TO NIKOLSKI ON SUNDAY.
MODELS..ESPECIALLY ECMWF HAVING TROUBLE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON WITH
THE DEVELOPING WAVES AND TRIPLE POINT FEATURES THAT ALWAYS FORM WHEN
THESE FRONTS STRETCH OUT TO THE EAST LIKE THIS. ACTUALLY..THE LATEST
GFS RUN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD IN KEEPING THE PARENT LOW DEEPER AND MORE
INTACT AS IT TRACKS EAST TO 155W-160W MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED -40C TO -45C
500MB TEMPS CENTERED OVER THE YUKON VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY INTERACTING WITH GULF LOW MOISTURE AND
PRODUCING SNOW FROM ABOUT THE EAST SIDE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA EASTWARD
FUNNEL WITH MODERATE SNOW AT VALDEZ. AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS EASTWARD
CLEARING AND COLDER TONIGHT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW AREA
WILL SHIFT OVER TO THE PACV-PAYA AREA AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN. NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD TO
THE AK PEN SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAD EAST AND GRAZE SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND
WITH SOME MOISTURE BRINGING ANOTHER SNOW THREAT TO PACV EASTWARD AGAIN
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NO GRID CHANGES BEYOND 84 HOURS. UPPER HIGH ACROSS PRIBILOFS TO THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AS
UPPER TROF SHIFTS TO THE BOARDER BY SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN MAINLAND
LOOKS CLEAR AND COLD WITH BRISK GLF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUNDS
WINDS FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL
BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AREA DEVELOPING IN ZONE 141
AROUND MID WEEK AT WHICH TIME GULKANA MAY APPROACH 50 BELOW. MOST OF
MAINLAND FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE COLDEST FIRST 10 DAYS OF FEBRUARY
SINCE 1999.

STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF ALEUTIANS THIS NEXT WEEK BUT MORE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT MID WEEK STORM FROM ADAK
TO COLD BAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE GREATER COLD BAY AREA SUNDAY.
         WINDCHILL AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THOMPSON PASS TONIGHT INTO
         SUNDAY.

MARINE...GALES AREAS 120 165 170 172 176 179
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 121 129 130 141 160 165 185

PERCY FEB 08