Storm Warning 202, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 040007
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT 
SLOWLY MOVES TO 135 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY FRI AFTERNOON. A 972 MB 
LOW 100 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAINT GEORGE
ISLAND THU AFTERNOON AT 982 MB AND THEN TO 225 NM WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR FRI AFTERNOON AT 989 MB.

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. STRONGER 
GUSTS 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDENHALL. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE MENDENHALL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT PACIFIC SIDE AND 9 FT BERING
SIDE. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE AND 9 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DOMINATING THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING IS A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF ATKA. A STRONG
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING NORTH AND EAST. A SMALL BUT
POTENT 160 KT JET IS HELPING BRINGING A NICE POOL OF WARM AIR
NORTHWARD WITH THIS FRONT WHICH IS MAKING PRECIPITATION TYPE ONE OF
THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE CENTER WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME WEAK TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN BRISTOL BAY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE SATELLITE IMAGE THIS MORNING
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION AS AN INFLECTION POINT IS ALREADY VISIBLE
JUST NORTH OF COLD BAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW AND CROSS THE PRIBILOFS FROM THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING ALL AREAS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL BY THIS EVENING. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED
PRECIP. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND RESIDUAL COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE LOWER LEVELS FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING TODAY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND LOOK TO PEAK LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING OFF
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE PAST MOST LOCATIONS BY
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CYCLONIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY SO COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN
RANGES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRISTOL BAY ZONE
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WEST OF DILLINGHAM
TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NEAR BETHEL WHERE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE MUCH
FURTHER TO GO BEFORE REACHING FREEZING.  AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND FALLS
APART TOMORROW IN THE UPPER KUSKO VALLEY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW....FORECAST WILL KEEP STORM TOTALS IN
THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE.

IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WET AND  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE LOW TAKES ITS TIME WEAKENING AND LEAVING THE AREA.
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES COLD BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 40 KTS WEST OF THE
PRIBILOFS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SLOWLY SPREADING
EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE SERIES OF VERY STRONG LOWS
OF THE PAST WEEKS...BUT NUMEROUS WEAK LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT THE AOR...MAKING THE EXACT IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
LESS CLEAR THAN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MIGHT SUGGEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 411 412 413
         GALES 120 125 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 172 175 176 179
         180 185 351 352 414
         HEAVY FREEZZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD DEC 08