Small Craft Advisory 956, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ALL MODELS DID A GOOD JOB OF INITIALIZING AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT FOR THE GFS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND THE NAM
SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT THE ECMWF POSITION. SO OUT WEST WE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IN THE EAST USING THE NAM FOR ITS DETAIL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE EASTERN
GULF/PANHANDLE. THE WESTERN LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND
DRIFT EAST OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
CANADA BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES IN FROM THE WEST
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE
TWENTIES BY WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
WITH WARM ADVECTION PUSHING INTO BRISTOL BAY BUT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN AS SNOW BUT WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WE MAY SEE SOME
FREEZING RAIN ALONG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG BRISTOL
BAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AND GUSTY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND BRISTOL BAY.

ALASKA PENINSULA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
WITH THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WITH THIS LOW ALMOST STATIONARY THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODEL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. WHILE A DEVELOPING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVE INTO THE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 176 185.
         GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 179
               180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08