Storm Warning 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 040006
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172W WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT SLOWLY 
MOVES TO 53N 163W FRI AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 55N 166W WILL 
MOVE TO 57N 170W THU AFTERNOON AT 982 MB AND THEN TO 53N 172W 
FRI AFTERNOON AT 989 MB.

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING T0NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 040353 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
655 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

UPDATED ZONE 412

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172W WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT SLOWLY 
MOVES TO 53N 163W FRI AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 55N 166W WILL 
MOVE TO 57N 170W THU AFTERNOON AT 982 MB AND THEN TO 53N 172W 
FRI AFTERNOON AT 989 MB.

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING T0NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 040641 AAB
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
945 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

UPDATED ALL ZONES

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 965 MB LOW NEAR 49N 172W WILL WEAKEN TO 985 MB AS IT SLOWLY 
MOVES TO 53N 163W FRI AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW NEAR 55N 166W WILL 
MOVE TO 57N 170W THU AFTERNOON AT 982 MB AND THEN TO 53N 172W  FRI
AFTERNOON AT 989 MB.

$$

PKZ411-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
945 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
945 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
945 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-041500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
945 PM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...DOMINATING THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING IS A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF ATKA. A STRONG
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PUSHING THROUGH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING NORTH AND EAST. A SMALL BUT
POTENT 160 KT JET IS HELPING BRINGING A NICE POOL OF WARM AIR
NORTHWARD WITH THIS FRONT WHICH IS MAKING PRECIPITATION TYPE ONE OF
THE MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE LOW SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE CENTER WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE
HINTING AT SOME WEAK TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN BRISTOL BAY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE SATELLITE IMAGE THIS MORNING
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION AS AN INFLECTION POINT IS ALREADY VISIBLE
JUST NORTH OF COLD BAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW AND CROSS THE PRIBILOFS FROM THE EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE IMPACTING ALL AREAS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL BY THIS EVENING. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP
FALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED
PRECIP. HOWEVER...WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND RESIDUAL COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE LOWER LEVELS FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING TODAY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND LOOK TO PEAK LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING OFF
RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE PAST MOST LOCATIONS BY
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CYCLONIC AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY SO COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN
RANGES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRISTOL BAY ZONE
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WEST OF DILLINGHAM
TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NEAR BETHEL WHERE SURFACE TEMPS HAVE MUCH
FURTHER TO GO BEFORE REACHING FREEZING.  AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND FALLS
APART TOMORROW IN THE UPPER KUSKO VALLEY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW....FORECAST WILL KEEP STORM TOTALS IN
THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE.

IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WET AND  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE LOW TAKES ITS TIME WEAKENING AND LEAVING THE AREA.
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES COLD BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 40 KTS WEST OF THE
PRIBILOFS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SLOWLY SPREADING
EASTWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK RIDGE
WILL TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE WESTERN BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE SERIES OF VERY STRONG LOWS
OF THE PAST WEEKS...BUT NUMEROUS WEAK LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND
THROUGHOUT THE AOR...MAKING THE EXACT IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
LESS CLEAR THAN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MIGHT SUGGEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 130 411 412 413
         GALES 120 125 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 172 175 176 179
         180 185 351 352 414
         HEAVY FREEZZING SPRAY 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD DEC 08