Storm Warning 195, NWS Anchorage, AK

287 
FZAK61 PAFC 252353
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 MB LOW AT 58N 150W WILL MOVE TO 59N 143W LATE FRI MORNING AT
972 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 985 MB.

$$

PKZ351-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

765 
FZAK61 PAFC 261220
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 59N 143W WILL WEAKEN TO 989 MB NEAR 57N 142W 
SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W TO NW WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W TO NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W TO NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 270057
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 59N 140W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 988 MB AND DRIFT TO
55N 138W SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 3O TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
POOR RECENT PERFORMANCE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MEAN UPPER RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALONG ABOUT 155 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE. STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE JET ON THE COLD SIDE (EASTERN) OF
THE HIGH FROM KODIAK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SAN FRANCISCO. INTERESTING
DYNAMICS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE DATE
LINE. BOTH LOWS ARE JUICY...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER ONE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE TWO LOWS WILL MERGE INTO AN ELONGATED FRONT SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...
BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF 53
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE BERING LOW AND ITS LONG FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHWARD...ON THE FIRST PART OF
ITS RETROGRADING JOURNEY.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA BY EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT. AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KUSKOKWIM BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FORMER BERING LOW WILL BE NEAR MCGRATH...
WITH A SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPING
JUST NORTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN LOW WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. LOTS OF COLD
ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WEST OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST (NEXT WEDNESDAY) AND BEYOND WILL BE THE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL ANCHOR THE UPPER LOW ALONG
ABOUT 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. SIBERIAN AIR WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BLOCK AND ACROSS ALASKA USHERING IN A COLD EPISODE. EXACTLY HOW
COLD IT WILL GET AND OTHER DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AS THE ONLY FEATURE
WITH ANY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THE BLOCKING RIDGE ITSELF...ALL
DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY WITH THE UPPER LOW IS SUBJECT TO NUMEROUS
NUANCES. BUT COLD TO VERY COLD IS LIKELY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
         GALE WARNING 120 121 132 138 150 155 160 165 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 129 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 08