Storm Warning 194, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251242
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

823 
FZAK62 PAFC 260016
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1015 MB LOW AT 61N 178E MOVES TO 57N 160W MID DAY ON FRIDAY AT 1008
MB AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.

$$

PKZ411-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
POOR RECENT PERFORMANCE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MEAN UPPER RIDGE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALONG ABOUT 155 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE. STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE JET ON THE COLD SIDE (EASTERN) OF
THE HIGH FROM KODIAK SOUTHEASTWARD TO SAN FRANCISCO. INTERESTING
DYNAMICS ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA AND A LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH JUST EAST OF THE DATE
LINE. BOTH LOWS ARE JUICY...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER ONE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE TWO LOWS WILL MERGE INTO AN ELONGATED FRONT SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...
BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL STAY SOUTH OF 53
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE BERING LOW AND ITS LONG FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHWARD...ON THE FIRST PART OF
ITS RETROGRADING JOURNEY.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW SYSTEM WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA BY EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT. AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO KUSKOKWIM BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FORMER BERING LOW WILL BE NEAR MCGRATH...
WITH A SECONDARY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPING
JUST NORTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY THE NORTHERN LOW WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. LOTS OF COLD
ADVECTION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WEST OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST (NEXT WEDNESDAY) AND BEYOND WILL BE THE BLOCKING RIDGE THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL ANCHOR THE UPPER LOW ALONG
ABOUT 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. SIBERIAN AIR WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BLOCK AND ACROSS ALASKA USHERING IN A COLD EPISODE. EXACTLY HOW
COLD IT WILL GET AND OTHER DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AS THE ONLY FEATURE
WITH ANY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS THE BLOCKING RIDGE ITSELF...ALL
DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY WITH THE UPPER LOW IS SUBJECT TO NUMEROUS
NUANCES. BUT COLD TO VERY COLD IS LIKELY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
         GALE WARNING 120 121 132 138 150 155 160 165 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 129 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 08