Blizzard Watch 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1020 AM AKST THU DEC 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOPING GULF LOW.  THE GULF LOW IS A TRIPLE POINT
FEATURE THAT FORMS JUST EAST OF KODIAK TODAY MOVES TOWARD MIDDLETON
ISLAND AND THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SAT AND SUN AS IT WEAKENS.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND EASTERN SIBERIA LOOKING LIKE
A SURE BET.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST IS DRIVING THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES. TRIPLE POINT LOW
FORMS AS COLD AIR MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TODAY.  THIS
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. MAJOR HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMS
OVER THE BERING AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWEST...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.  WEAK
DISTURBANCE NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT EXPECT OVER THE AK PEN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL...SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
MORNING OVER COOK INLET.  EXPECT STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE USUAL PLACES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

BERING...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER AK PENINSULA
AND ALEUTIANS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DISSIPATES IN PLACE
LATE SUNDAY WITHOUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD! SOME AREAS OF FOG OTHERWISE...COLD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ 155, WWA 161, 151, 121
MARINE...SEE PACKAGES..TOO MANY TO LIST HERE!
FIRE WEATHER...NOT AWARE OF ANY AT THIS TIME

 DEC 08