Storm Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 140117
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 951 MB LOW 250 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 400 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING TO 975 MB 175 NM SOUTH
OF SHEMYA TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT. A 982
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN TO 957 MB NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING TO 971 MB NEAR CAPE ROMANZOF TUESDAY EVENING.
$$

PKZ150-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS
AND PASSES. WINDS DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MONDAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-141500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT
THIS EVENING. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MONDAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-141500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-141500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT THIS EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-141500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT.  
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT.  
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT THIS EVENING THEN
BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT THIS
EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 33 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-141500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-141500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-141500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-141500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 28 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-141500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 27 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS OVERALL IS PREFERRED...ESPECIALLY WITH
DEVELOPING NPAC STORM. LOW POSITIONS VARY SOME ON NCEP MODELS.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS
SIMILAR. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN GULF THAT THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION PROBABLY IS
BEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND 60-72 HRS...SO WILL KEEP CHANGES
TO MINIMUM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.EAST...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN EVENING. COLD AIR STREAMING OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN AND EVEN STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE WESTERN GULF. AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SUPPORTING WEST/N FLOW ALOFT WILL KICK IN
AND PRODUCE GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH STORM GUSTS THROUGH
PASSES. WINDS LIKELY TO DIMINISH MON AS GRADIENTS RELAX. COLD TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING....THIS COMBINED WITH GAP WINDS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOW WIND CHILLS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNTIL PASSAGE OF
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MON WILL BRING A SHOT RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND...AND SNOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. TEMPS WILL ALSO FINALLY START WARMING.

.WEST...NPAC STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE
AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. MISSING GMS SAT IMAGERY...SO ONLY HAVE
BOUNDARY GOES VIEW. STARTING TO SEE INFLECTION IN CLOUD BAND WITH
SOME STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT. POSITION WOULD PLACE AREA NEAR EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET. MODELS DEEPEN CENTER AND TAKE IT TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND RE-CURVATURE TO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA
SUN AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO JUST WEST OF
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SUN AFTERNOON. FRONT TROUGH CONTINUES TRACK TO
THE AK PEN AND SW MAINLAND SUN NIGHT/MON. EXPECT STORM TO HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...AND STORMS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO GALES
OVER THE AK PEN/SW COASTS AS CONNECT LOW CENTER BACKS WEST. HIGH WIND
WARNING CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH HIGH END STRONG
WIND HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. WARMING TEMPS LIKELY TO SHIFT SNOW TO MIXED
RATHER QUICKLY AS FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...
THE PRIBILOFS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW...SO WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WATCH STARTING SUN AFTERNOON ON THIS PACKAGE AND CARRY THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE SW COAST
EARLY MON...BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ZONE
PACKAGE.

SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS MON AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING
THIS FEATURE. EXPECT AT LEAST GALE TO LOW END STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 187 & 191. BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 195.
MARINE...GALE 121, 129, 130, 132, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 171, 180
         STORM 170, 176, 179, 185
         HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 08