Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
WWAK42 PAFC 131050
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
150 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

AKZ161-131200-
/X.CAN.PAFC.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-080113T1500Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
150 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 

$$

AKZ195-140200-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0001.080114T0100Z-080114T1200Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
150 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. 

AN INTENSE WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. VISIBILITIES COULD BE
REDUCES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILES IN THE BLOWING SNOW.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

$$

000 
WWAK42 PAFC 131549
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
649 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

AKZ195-140400-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0001.080114T0100Z-080114T1200Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0002.080114T0000Z-080114T1200Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
649 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AST
MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

AN INTENSE WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILES IN THE BLOWING SNOW.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS OVERALL IS PREFERRED...ESPECIALLY WITH
DEVELOPING NPAC STORM. LOW POSITIONS VARY SOME ON NCEP MODELS.
HOWEVER...TIMING OF FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS
SIMILAR. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE WESTERN GULF THAT THE MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION PROBABLY IS
BEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND 60-72 HRS...SO WILL KEEP CHANGES
TO MINIMUM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.EAST...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SUN EVENING. COLD AIR STREAMING OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN AND EVEN STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INCREASE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE WESTERN GULF. AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT SUPPORTING WEST/N FLOW ALOFT WILL KICK IN
AND PRODUCE GALES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH STORM GUSTS THROUGH
PASSES. WINDS LIKELY TO DIMINISH MON AS GRADIENTS RELAX. COLD TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON MORNING....THIS COMBINED WITH GAP WINDS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOW WIND CHILLS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN UNTIL PASSAGE OF
UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MON WILL BRING A SHOT RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK ISLAND...AND SNOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. TEMPS WILL ALSO FINALLY START WARMING.

.WEST...NPAC STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS INTENSE
AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. MISSING GMS SAT IMAGERY...SO ONLY HAVE
BOUNDARY GOES VIEW. STARTING TO SEE INFLECTION IN CLOUD BAND WITH
SOME STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT. POSITION WOULD PLACE AREA NEAR EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET. MODELS DEEPEN CENTER AND TAKE IT TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND RE-CURVATURE TO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA
SUN AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO JUST WEST OF
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SUN AFTERNOON. FRONT TROUGH CONTINUES TRACK TO
THE AK PEN AND SW MAINLAND SUN NIGHT/MON. EXPECT STORM TO HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...AND STORMS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO GALES
OVER THE AK PEN/SW COASTS AS CONNECT LOW CENTER BACKS WEST. HIGH WIND
WARNING CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH HIGH END STRONG
WIND HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. WARMING TEMPS LIKELY TO SHIFT SNOW TO MIXED
RATHER QUICKLY AS FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...
THE PRIBILOFS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW...SO WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WATCH STARTING SUN AFTERNOON ON THIS PACKAGE AND CARRY THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE SW COAST
EARLY MON...BUT FOR NOW WILL SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN ZONE
PACKAGE.

SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS MON AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING
THIS FEATURE. EXPECT AT LEAST GALE TO LOW END STORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 187 & 191. BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 195.
MARINE...GALE 121, 129, 130, 132, 138, 150, 155, 160, 165, 171, 180
         STORM 170, 176, 179, 185
         HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 08