Storm Warning 170, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 221938 RRA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1010 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

RETRANSMITTED FOR WEB

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR SAINT GEORGE WEAKENS TO 990 MB SAT AFTERNOON OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A 986 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF ATTU INTENSIFIES
TO 966 MB SUN AFTERNOON 225 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL AND BECOMES
STATIONARY. AN ASSOCIATED LOW INTENSIFIES TO 964 MB AS IT MOVES NEAR
SAND POINT SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-230300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-230300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. WIND BECOMING
S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-230300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-230300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT BECOMING 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-230300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-230300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1010 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT...BECOMING W 25 KT LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE EVENING AND INCREASING TO SE
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-230300-
UNALASKA BAY
1010 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING S WIND 15 KT AND INCREASING TO SE 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-230300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-230300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-230300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-230300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-230300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING NEAR
CHIGNIK AND WEAKEN TO 996 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT. A 980 MB 175 NM EAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 240 NM 
NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT 968 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TO 200 NM NORTHEAST OF ADAK AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 972 MB MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR PORT HEIDEN MONDAY
MORNING AT 968 MB.
 
$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT LATE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING S 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT LATE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING SE 25 KT TOWARD MORNING FROM COLD BAY W. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT MID EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT MID EVENING...THEN
BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE SLID INTO A BACKWARDS TREND IN TERMS OF AGREEMENT TODAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION ELONGATES THE LOW IN THE BERING AT 48 HOURS
WHILE THE GFS FORMS SUCCESSIVE TRIPLE POINT LOWS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DO SOME ODD THINGS AT 72
HOURS BY ELONGATING THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND ON A NORTH TO SOUTH
AXIS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THUS THE GFS WAS AGAIN THE MODEL OF THE
DAY...USING A 25/75 BLEND WITH THE OLD/NEW RUNS TO PICK UP THE MAJOR
CHANGES WITHOUT COMPLETELY DISREGARDING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL
JET STREAM FLOWING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.  MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE JET...EACH CORRESPONDING TO AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY THAT IS FEEDING A SURFACE LOW.  AT THE SURFACE THE
STRONGEST LOW CURRENTLY LIES IN THE CENTRAL BERING.  A WEAKER LOW IS
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF KODIAK AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS A BIT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BUT THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REST
OF THE STATE SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THE
APPROACHING FRONT IS BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ALOFT.  AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY EVERYWHERE ELSE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COLD...AND WEST OF
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO KODIAK LAST NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION TODAY AS WELL.  A SECOND WEAK
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
A SECOND BATCH OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW...BELOW 6 INCHES...WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CLEAR AND COLD FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE
MAINLAND AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE THE
BENEFIT OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING THE WARMTH IN LATER TODAY.
THE STRONG LOW THATS CURRENTLY IN THE BERING IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN TODAY AND BY THE TIME IT REACHES BRISTOL BAY IT IS FORECAST TO
BRING SOME SNOW BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS.  CURRENTLY HOWEVER
THIS LOW IS STILL PRETTY STRONG AND IS BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING.  FORTUNATELY TEMPS ARE STILL PRETTY WARM
OUT THERE AND BLOWING SNOW HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CONCERN.  BY THE
TIME THE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TO MAKE THE SNOW MORE TRANSPORTABLE
THE WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED.  THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN
TO THE REGION.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SO ONLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT POSITION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ONE RIGHT AFTER THE
OTHER.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A LOW ON MONDAY MAY BRING SOME MIXED
PRECIP ON THE MAINLAND BUT THAT FAR OUT CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST IS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 131
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 160 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
         FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF NOV 08