Gale Warning 744, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230034
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 75 NM NORTH OF
KODIAK CITY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA SUNDAY
MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A 963 MB LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

.TONIGHT...W WINDS INCREASING 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 231255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHWEST OF ATKA WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR KING
SALMON AT 976 MB MON AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST MON
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-240300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-240300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-240300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-240300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-240300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 07 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-240300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 08 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-240300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-240300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 35 KT
INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-240300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE SLID INTO A BACKWARDS TREND IN TERMS OF AGREEMENT TODAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION ELONGATES THE LOW IN THE BERING AT 48 HOURS
WHILE THE GFS FORMS SUCCESSIVE TRIPLE POINT LOWS SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DO SOME ODD THINGS AT 72
HOURS BY ELONGATING THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND ON A NORTH TO SOUTH
AXIS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THUS THE GFS WAS AGAIN THE MODEL OF THE
DAY...USING A 25/75 BLEND WITH THE OLD/NEW RUNS TO PICK UP THE MAJOR
CHANGES WITHOUT COMPLETELY DISREGARDING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL
JET STREAM FLOWING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.  MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE JET...EACH CORRESPONDING TO AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY THAT IS FEEDING A SURFACE LOW.  AT THE SURFACE THE
STRONGEST LOW CURRENTLY LIES IN THE CENTRAL BERING.  A WEAKER LOW IS
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF KODIAK AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.  THERE IS A BIT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BUT THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  THE COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE REST
OF THE STATE SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS THE
APPROACHING FRONT IS BRINGING SOME WARM AIR ALOFT.  AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY EVERYWHERE ELSE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COLD...AND WEST OF
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO KODIAK LAST NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SNOW TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION TODAY AS WELL.  A SECOND WEAK
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BRING
A SECOND BATCH OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW...BELOW 6 INCHES...WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CLEAR AND COLD FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE
MAINLAND AGAIN TODAY ALTHOUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE THE
BENEFIT OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING THE WARMTH IN LATER TODAY.
THE STRONG LOW THATS CURRENTLY IN THE BERING IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN TODAY AND BY THE TIME IT REACHES BRISTOL BAY IT IS FORECAST TO
BRING SOME SNOW BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS.  CURRENTLY HOWEVER
THIS LOW IS STILL PRETTY STRONG AND IS BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING.  FORTUNATELY TEMPS ARE STILL PRETTY WARM
OUT THERE AND BLOWING SNOW HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CONCERN.  BY THE
TIME THE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TO MAKE THE SNOW MORE TRANSPORTABLE
THE WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED.  THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SEE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING RAIN
TO THE REGION.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SO ONLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT POSITION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ONE RIGHT AFTER THE
OTHER.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A LOW ON MONDAY MAY BRING SOME MIXED
PRECIP ON THE MAINLAND BUT THAT FAR OUT CONFIDENCE IN A PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST IS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 131
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150 155 160 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
         FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF NOV 08