Storm Warning 160, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 230003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING NEAR
CHIGNIK AND WEAKEN TO 996 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT. A 980 MB NEAR 52N 178E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 179W AT 968 MB
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 55N 173W AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS TO 972 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE INLAND
NEAR PORT HEIDEN MONDAY MORNING AT 968 MB. 

$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NE 40 TO 50 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 45 KT...STRONGEST EAST. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 40 INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AROUND 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING W 20 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 
TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
W. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
W OF 166W. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT...HIGHEST W. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT...BECOMING W 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
W OF 166W AND S OF 56N. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 231255
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 972 MB LOW 54N 175W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR KING SALMON AT 976 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW 54N 165E WILL MOVE TO 52N 165E AT 997 MB MON
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING. A 994 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR
52N 179W SUN EVENING AND MOVE TO 52N 173W MON AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING MON EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
N. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-240300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 232354
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 54N 170W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 55N 152W MONDAY
AFTERNOON AT 977 MB. A 978 MB LOW NEAR 54N 177E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 
50N 176W TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 995 MB.

$$

PKZ411-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
S. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. HIGHEST WINDS 
AND SEAS S. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT DECREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-241500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT...HIGHEST S. SNOW 
AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT...HIGHEST S. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 
56N. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
325 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH MULTIPLE
VORTICIES EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE ALASKA/CANADA BORDER NEAR EAGLE AND A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BETWEEN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT. TO THE
WEST...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOCATED NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS IS WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE DOMINANT LONG WAVE
LOW OVER THE MAINLAND. AT THE SURFACE...THERE ARE SEVERAL KEY
FEATURES THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST. THE MOST
CRITICAL IS A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OCCLUSION
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IN THE GULF...THERE IS A WEAK LOW LOCATED
NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE....PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
COMPLICATING THIS EVENINGS FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN KENAI AND
ANCHORAGE BOWL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IS NOT BEING ACCURATELY DEPICTED BY
ANY OF THE 4 MODELS WE EVALUATED. OVERALL THERE IS RELATIVE AGREEMENT
ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH 60 HOURS BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH IN
THE SHORT WAVES...WHICH TRANSLATES TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL HAVE THE LARGEST IMPACT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN ALL OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES...OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN SOME OF THESE KEY FEATURES THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED.

THE NAM HAS HAD THE WORST TRACK RECORD LATELY AND IS VARYING THE MOST
FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING IMPROVED RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY. WE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS RUN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
WHILE THE GAP WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...SEVERAL
AREAS ARE STILL SEEING STRONG WINDS AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WINDS FLOWING OUT OF
KAMISHAK BAY AND BY THE BARREN ISLANDS. A MESO-LOW HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF SEWARD.  THIS SUBTLE FEATURE COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
UP COOK INLET IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF SNOW FROM HOMER UP TO KENAI
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOWFALL FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THE TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA DEVELOPS AND MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AND INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LACKING WITH THIS LOW AS IS THE THERMAL
PACKING WE LIKE TO SEE AT 850 MB. WHILE WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR SNOW
IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA SATURDAY...IT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
ALL NICELY COMING TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT...WILL BE CALLING FOR 2 TO
4 INCHES FOR THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AND LOWER AMOUNTS
IN THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE ADVERTISING THIS SCENARIO...WILL HAVE TO TREND THE SNOW
AMOUNTS UP.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SET FOR THIS DATE IN BETHEL AND KING SALMON...THE 3RD DAY
IN A ROW FOR BETHEL.

A DEFORMATION ZONE STRETCHING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS PROVIDING
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE OUT OF THE CLOUDS NEAR MCGRATH.
THE LIGHT SNOW FALL IS LETTING UP ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTH.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS AREA IS THE NEAR RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILL READINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST BRINGING WIND
CHILL READINGS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVEL. 25-35 BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILL READINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL RESULTING IN

CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COULD POTENTIALLY
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS IS ONE FEATURE THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
HANDLING SO WILL NOT RUSH TO ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED AS MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THIS WEEKEND.

BERING SEA ALEUTIANS...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WILL BE THE WEAKENING
LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
GALES LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW SAGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND FROM
990 MB TO 968 MB IN 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS BACK
TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY ON THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION SIDE OF THE LOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW COULD POSSIBLY BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOFS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COPIED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET
WILL LEAD TO A VERY STORMY EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST THE DETAILS OF THESE STORMS VERY FAR OUT IN TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...185.
         GALE WARNING...155 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 08