Storm Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 251107
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 986 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO 52N 154W THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO  57N 146W AT 992 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN TO 59N 143W
AT 997 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT THIS AFTERNOON. 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 260029
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 53N 154W WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB NEAR 57N 147W SUN
AFTERNOON AND TO 1006 MB NEAR 59N 141W MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-261400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E TO NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-261400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUN...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 260030 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

UPDATE FOR ZONES 351 AND 352

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 53N 154W WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB NEAR 57N 147W SUN
AFTERNOON AND TO 1006 MB NEAR 59N 141W MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-261400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
430 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E TO NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-261400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
430 PM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUN...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 261055
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 987 MB LOW AT 55N 151W
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES TO 58N 146W AT 993 MB THIS EVENING. THE LOW
THEN MOVES TO 59N 144W AT 1002 MB MON AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ351-270200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. WINDS BECOMING N 35 KT WEST OF 147W THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG 980 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
THIS MORNING IS THE STRONGEST FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE
BERING 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL IS THE STRONGEST FEATURE OUT
WEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...BOTH IN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONG DIFFERENT MODELS. ONE OF THE LARGER
MODEL ISSUES REGARDS THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS MADE A HUGE JUMP EAST IN ITS TRACK
FROM THE 12Z TO THE 0Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE
12Z AND 0Z GFS. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND AND TRENDED SOME FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS)
TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK. THIS WOULD TAKE THE
LOW NORTHEAST TROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND ONSHORE AROUND YAKUTAT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE YUKON
THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE YUKON LOW LINGERS THIS
MORNING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FORMING OFF COOK INLET IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. A
VERY DRY AND VERY COLD AIRMASS IS WORKING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS NORTH TO
WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS DRAMATICALLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL...STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOW THAT 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
REFERENCING STATISTICS...ONLY THREE TENTHS OF ONE PERCENT OF DATA
FALLS OUTSIDE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE YUKON LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE DETERMINING HOW COLD IT WILL GET. IT LOOKS LIKE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT...BUT
TOWARD MORNING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS KEEPING IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS IT COULD FOR
THE COOK INLET REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE TALKEETNA AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WEST. A GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE AROUND YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT. IF IT
TAKES THIS TRACK IT WILL BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TO
SOUTHCENTRAL...LEAVING THE AREA DRY AND COLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD BEST SUMMARIZES THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A SMALL BUT FAIRLY POTENT LOW IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
THIS MORNING. A FRONT DRAPED EAST FROM THE LOW IS BRINGING SOME SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY
SAINT GEORGE WHICH LIES JUST BARELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE LOW AND THE FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE ENERGY IS
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. COLD BUT FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WARMER AIRMASS WITH RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE TERRIBLE IN THE LONG TERM. IN GENERAL...IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER AND WET WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A BLOCKING
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THIS AREA GENERALLY
DRY AND COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 130.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 129 132 140 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08