Gale Warning 656, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 250621 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 172 179

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1008 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE 110 NM
NORTH OF COLD BAY SAT MORNING. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUN.
$$

PKZ150-251400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-251400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-251400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251144
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1010 MB LOW 75 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THIS MORNING
DISSIPATES TODAY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A 986 MB LOW WHICH MOVES
NORTH TO 350 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN AND SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A 988 MB
LOW WHICH MOVES TO 100 NM NORTH OF ATTU LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 25 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG 980 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
THIS MORNING IS THE STRONGEST FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE
BERING 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL IS THE STRONGEST FEATURE OUT
WEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...BOTH IN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONG DIFFERENT MODELS. ONE OF THE LARGER
MODEL ISSUES REGARDS THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS MADE A HUGE JUMP EAST IN ITS TRACK
FROM THE 12Z TO THE 0Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE
12Z AND 0Z GFS. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND AND TRENDED SOME FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS)
TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK. THIS WOULD TAKE THE
LOW NORTHEAST TROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND ONSHORE AROUND YAKUTAT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE YUKON
THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE YUKON LOW LINGERS THIS
MORNING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FORMING OFF COOK INLET IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. A
VERY DRY AND VERY COLD AIRMASS IS WORKING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS NORTH TO
WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS DRAMATICALLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL...STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOW THAT 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
REFERENCING STATISTICS...ONLY THREE TENTHS OF ONE PERCENT OF DATA
FALLS OUTSIDE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE YUKON LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE DETERMINING HOW COLD IT WILL GET. IT LOOKS LIKE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT...BUT
TOWARD MORNING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS KEEPING IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS IT COULD FOR
THE COOK INLET REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE TALKEETNA AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WEST. A GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE AROUND YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT. IF IT
TAKES THIS TRACK IT WILL BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TO
SOUTHCENTRAL...LEAVING THE AREA DRY AND COLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD BEST SUMMARIZES THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A SMALL BUT FAIRLY POTENT LOW IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
THIS MORNING. A FRONT DRAPED EAST FROM THE LOW IS BRINGING SOME SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY
SAINT GEORGE WHICH LIES JUST BARELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE LOW AND THE FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE ENERGY IS
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. COLD BUT FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WARMER AIRMASS WITH RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE TERRIBLE IN THE LONG TERM. IN GENERAL...IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER AND WET WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A BLOCKING
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THIS AREA GENERALLY
DRY AND COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 130.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 129 132 140 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08