Gale Warning 600, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 250041 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 413

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 55N 167 WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 57N 163W SAT MORNING.
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA SUN.
$$

PKZ411-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 24 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG 980 MB SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON
THIS MORNING IS THE STRONGEST FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT THIS
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE
BERING 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL IS THE STRONGEST FEATURE OUT
WEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THEY HAVE BEEN...BOTH IN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONG DIFFERENT MODELS. ONE OF THE LARGER
MODEL ISSUES REGARDS THE NEXT LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS MADE A HUGE JUMP EAST IN ITS TRACK
FROM THE 12Z TO THE 0Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK IN BETWEEN THE
12Z AND 0Z GFS. WENT WITH A MIDDLE GROUND AND TRENDED SOME FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE 12Z GFS)
TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK. THIS WOULD TAKE THE
LOW NORTHEAST TROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND ONSHORE AROUND YAKUTAT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE YUKON
THIS MORNING. SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE YUKON LOW LINGERS THIS
MORNING OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FORMING OFF COOK INLET IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. A
VERY DRY AND VERY COLD AIRMASS IS WORKING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS NORTH TO
WEST WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS DRAMATICALLY COLDER
THAN NORMAL...STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOW THAT 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
REFERENCING STATISTICS...ONLY THREE TENTHS OF ONE PERCENT OF DATA
FALLS OUTSIDE THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE YUKON LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WILL BE DETERMINING HOW COLD IT WILL GET. IT LOOKS LIKE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT...BUT
TOWARD MORNING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS KEEPING IT FROM GETTING AS COLD AS IT COULD FOR
THE COOK INLET REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT WARM
ADVECTION SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE TALKEETNA AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WEST. A GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT IS THAT
IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE AROUND YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT. IF IT
TAKES THIS TRACK IT WILL BRING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TO
SOUTHCENTRAL...LEAVING THE AREA DRY AND COLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD BEST SUMMARIZES THE FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING SHOTS OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A SMALL BUT FAIRLY POTENT LOW IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
THIS MORNING. A FRONT DRAPED EAST FROM THE LOW IS BRINGING SOME SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY
SAINT GEORGE WHICH LIES JUST BARELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE LOW AND THE FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHEAST TOWARD DUTCH HARBOR LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE ENERGY IS
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. COLD BUT FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WARMER AIRMASS WITH RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE TERRIBLE IN THE LONG TERM. IN GENERAL...IT LOOKS LIKE
WARMER AND WET WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A BLOCKING
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND WILL KEEP THIS AREA GENERALLY
DRY AND COLD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 130.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 129 132 140 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08