Snow Advisory 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE APR 15 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LONG WAVE PATTERN IS STILL PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. BOTH
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING ARE
MOVING EAST AT A FAIR GOOD CLIP.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS MOVED ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS.

SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL MOVE TO LIE ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE WILL COME TO
DOMINATE THE STATE BY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SEA OF OHKOTSK
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY. THERE IS STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MORE WARM WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE BERING SEA ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. SNOW OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA, ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL END THIS EVENING.
RAIN AND SNOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING AND END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SNOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET AND ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY.
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE THE THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST BUT WILL
ALSO SLOW DOWN. THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE STATE WILL LIE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO SIBERIA FRIDAY.

THE WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE BERING THURSDAY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 121, 129, 132, 138, 141, 150, 155, 175, 180
         STORM 130, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 08