Gale Warning 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171119
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$

PKZ120-180200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-180200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-180200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-180200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-180200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 172356
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.FRI THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.FRI THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.FRI THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 30 DECREASING TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NW WIND 20
KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...WEST WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
630 AM ADT WED APR 16 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH TROF AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
THEN SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY 40N 170W. THE BASE OF THE TROF IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BECOMING A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IN THE SUBTROPICS...MORE ON
THIS LATER. TO THE WEST OF THE TROF IS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THEN ANOTHER DEEP TROF IS LOCATED NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

THE SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A WEAK LOW NEAR CORDOVA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST...PARALLELING THE UPPER
TROF. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILT IN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHERE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS...THIS
TIME YESTERDAY THE PRIBILOFS WERE EXPERIENCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WITH 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
OF THE NAM IS HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION AND LOCAL STRONG WINDS
BETTER IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR THIS REASON...PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AS THE LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES NEAR YAKUTAT
TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...HAVE BLENDED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE MAJOR STORY THESE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH OUR FORECAST DOMAIN. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROF WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...OTHERWISE MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS
SYSTEM ADMIRABLY. OVERNIGHT ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AS INGREDIENTS HAVE COME TOGETHER NICELY IN THE AREA. THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OVERNIGHT A SHORTWAVE MOVED OVER THE
REGION FURTHER ENHANCING THE DYNAMICS. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
FORCING IN THE FORM OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WILL LINGER IN
THE AREA TODAY BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
THE AFTERNOON. STORM TOTALS OF 5 TO 11 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE
ADVISED AREA.

ELSEWHERE...GAP WINDS ARE THE ONLY OTHER MAIN CONCERN IN THE EASTERN
DOMAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXISTS THROUGH THOMPSON
PASS WHERE HEAVY SNOW FELL FOR SOME PERIOD OVERNIGHT AND NOW POST
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS HAVE INCREASED. WORDED THE FORECAST
STRONGLY BUT HELD OFF ISSUING A BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL WE CAN GET
CONFIRMATION FROM DOT.

BESIDES THOMPSON PASS...WHITTIER AND SEWARD WILL SEE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE
GUSTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST QUICKLY TODAY AND REMAINS IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST EXTENDED GFS IS STRENGTHENING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND EASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA...TRANSLATING TO WARM SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND BERING SEA FORECAST...
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A SURFACE
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AND ONSHORE ACROSS THE YUKON
AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL RESUME
BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. BRISTOL BAY WILL REMAIN
DRY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW NEAR 40N WILL RETURN TO THE
PICTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
DURING THE WEEK AS IT MEANDERS ABOUT 35N AND THEN GETS CAUGHT UP IN
THE DEEPENING TROF TO THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...SENDING THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE JOURNEY TO THE
SOUTH HELP THE SYSTEM GATHER ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARMTH
BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO ALASKA FOR THE WEEKEND...FURTHER REINFORCING
THE IDEA THAT SPRING LIKE WEATHER IS ON ITS WAY.

FURTHER OUT WEST...A STORM FORCE FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONG FETCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TOMORROW AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING BUT
WILL BECOME THE CATALYST TO BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW
BACK NORTH AND THEN RE-ENERGIZING OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 176
         GALE 120 121 129 132 138 150 155 172 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB APR 08