Small Craft Advisory 926, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE VERY BROAD SCALE PATTERNS. HOWEVER LEANED
TOWARD THE MORE SPLIT LOW SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO THE GFS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD PERIOD. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN RESOLVING THE CURRENT PATTERN DETAILS (IE. TIMING AND SURFACE
LOW REDEVELOPMENT) WELL IN THE VERY SHORT TERM DECIDED TO LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A NUMBER OF LOWS ARE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CURRENTLY
NEAR COLD BAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHCENTRAL. MANY AREAS
ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING HOMER..KODIAK AND SEWARD HAVE CHANGED OVER
TO RAIN. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A NEW LOW WILL FORM NEAR
KODIAK TODAY AS THE PARENT LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AK. ECMWF SAYS YES..GFS SAYS NO.

A SECONDARY LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR ON SATELLITE. THIS
ONE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT COULD CAUSE BRIEF INCREASES IN WIND AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

A THIRD LOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING GALES AND
RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL..IT LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZE/THAW ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER MOVES
TOWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. FOR TODAY EXPECT RAIN FROM KODIAK
TO WHITTIER WITH SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SNOW
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINS UPSLOPING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST WITH STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL GAPS.

SOUTHWEST AK..KING SALMON SOUTH AND EAST HAS ALSO WARMED BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS WEST AND
NORTH OF KING SALMON WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING AS THE WINDS
COME OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE Y-K DELTA TODAY UNDER THOSE COLD NORTH WINDS. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING..THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AND/OR SNOW
TODAY WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. BY WED THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL START TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF A VERY STRONG LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT POSITION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ONE RIGHT AFTER THE
OTHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING TWO VERY STRONG LOWS APPROACHING THE
ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE BUT COULD
BE LOOKING AT A NUMBER OF WIND WARNINGS COMING UP LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 150
         GALES 120 125 130 132 155 172 175 180
         FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW NOV 08