Gale Warning 698, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 241256
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW 54N 171W WILL MOVE TO 53N 155W AT 988 MB MON NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE. A 983 MB LOW 53N 179E WILL MOVE TO 50N 172W TUE AFTERNOON
AT 992 MB AND BE ABSORBED INTO A NORTH PACIFIC LOW. A 973 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO 50N 155W TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-250300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 15
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY LATE MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 242358
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 52N 180 WILL MOVE TO 50N 175W TUE AFTERNOON AT 
991 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE TUE EVENING. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW 
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 950 MB AS IT MOVES TO 46N 174W WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251252
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 MB LOW 52N 158W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CORDOVA AT 987 MB TUE
NIGHT. A 984 MB LOW 51N 177W WILL MOVE TO 50N 175W TUE AFTERNOON AT
993 MB AND DISSIPATE. A 984 MB LOW 45N 174W WILL MOVE TO 57N 145W AT
985 MB WED NIGHT. A 955 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 43N 178E TUE NIGHT AND
THEN MOVE TO 48N 168W AT 946 MB WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
305 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS AFFECTING THE STATE TODAY...A COLD CORE CUTOFF
LOW NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND ANOTHER STACKED LOW NEAR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN BEFORE TURNING SOUTH SHARPLY NEAR 140W AND THEN BACK NORTH OUT
OF THE TROF ACROSS THE AK PANHANDLE.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DISSIPATING OVER COOK INLET
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED THAT IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN. THE MAJOR FEATURE ACROSS THE STATE IS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...STEALING
THE ENERGY FROM ANOTHER LOW THAT IS WEAKENING JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE SYSTEM OUT
WEST. MODELS INITIALIZE POORLY AND DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FIRST
24 HOURS AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE MODEL PERFORMANCE LATELY...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. SURPRISINGLY...THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH UPCOMING SYSTEMS SO NOT MANY
CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE. WE USED A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE SHORT TERM. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE THE
MOST SIMILAR AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO PICKED UP ON THE MAJOR
FEATURES THAT WE WANTED TO EMPHASIZE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROVIDED THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR SNOW FROM KACHEMAK BAY TO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA WHILE
MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE REMAINED
LIGHT...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGHEST TOTALS FROM WEST
ANCHORAGE UP THE SUSITNA VALLEY. ONE SPOTTER IN SEWARD REPORTED JUST
UNDER 4 INCHES AND HEAVY SNOW AT THE TIME...A RESULT OF THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING GAP WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND ANCHORAGE. GLEN ALPS HAS ALREADY SWITCHED TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME LATER THIS
EVENING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD
STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING NOW.
GIVEN OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE...WE WILL ONLY TREND TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT BUMP THEM UP TO STORMS IF THE 00Z
RUNS CONTINUE WITH THAT LINE OF THINKING.

THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION
IN ANCHORAGE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY SNOW
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ALREADY FORECASTED...WILL BE CONSIDERING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THIS ZONE WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
FOR THE FIFTH STRAIGHT DAY BETHEL BROKE A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE. THE
RECORD COLD WILL END AS CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN BRISTOL BAY. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE INCREASING AS A RESULT OF THE DEEPENING PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND MONDAY TO ABOVE ZERO FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THURSDAY...STILL 15 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM WILL SEE MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE EXTRA MOISTURE WILL HELP THE AREA WARM
UP TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO BRISTOL BAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
PRECIP TYPE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...WILL LIKELY SEE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH RAIN AND SLEET ALONG THE ALEUTIAN MOUNTAIN RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALSO EXISTS AS DOES BLOWING SNOW NEAR
DILLINGHAM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
FREEZING DURING THIS EVENT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...COLD AIR FILTERS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION CHANGING ALL THE PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO
SNOW.

BERING SEA ALEUTIANS...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WAS THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS ARE
AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD IS MASKING THE
FEATURES AT THE SURFACE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND IS WEAKENING
WHILE A LOW JUST NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR IS TAPPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING. IF THIS IS
TRUE...COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM...OR MAYBE EVEN
HURRICANE FORCE. THIS IS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS SO WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THIS STRONGER SCENARIO. HOPEFULLY THE
00Z RUNS WILL SHED SOME LIGHT ON THIS SITUATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...170 172 175.
         GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 172 175
            176 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 08