Gale Warning 752, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 242358
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 65 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 95 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SEWARD MON NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 982 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF
ADAK WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK TUE AFTERNOON AT 991 MB
AND THEN DISSIPATE TUE EVENING. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW WILL 
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 950 MB AS IT MOVES TO 425 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT SW 30 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 16 
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-251500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE VERY BROAD SCALE PATTERNS. HOWEVER LEANED
TOWARD THE MORE SPLIT LOW SCENARIO OF THE ECMWF BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO THE GFS FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD PERIOD. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN RESOLVING THE CURRENT PATTERN DETAILS (IE. TIMING AND SURFACE
LOW REDEVELOPMENT) WELL IN THE VERY SHORT TERM DECIDED TO LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A NUMBER OF LOWS ARE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CURRENTLY
NEAR COLD BAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHCENTRAL. MANY AREAS
ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING HOMER..KODIAK AND SEWARD HAVE CHANGED OVER
TO RAIN. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A NEW LOW WILL FORM NEAR
KODIAK TODAY AS THE PARENT LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AK. ECMWF SAYS YES..GFS SAYS NO.

A SECONDARY LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR ON SATELLITE. THIS
ONE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT COULD CAUSE BRIEF INCREASES IN WIND AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

A THIRD LOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BRINGING GALES AND
RAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL..IT LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZE/THAW ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER MOVES
TOWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. FOR TODAY EXPECT RAIN FROM KODIAK
TO WHITTIER WITH SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SNOW
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINS UPSLOPING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST WITH STRONG
WINDS THROUGH THE USUAL GAPS.

SOUTHWEST AK..KING SALMON SOUTH AND EAST HAS ALSO WARMED BUT THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS WEST AND
NORTH OF KING SALMON WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING AS THE WINDS
COME OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE Y-K DELTA TODAY UNDER THOSE COLD NORTH WINDS. EXPECT
SOME CLEARING BY WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING..THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
WEATHER TUESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AND/OR SNOW
TODAY WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. BY WED THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL START TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF A VERY STRONG LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS CURRENT POSITION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
TRAIN OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ONE RIGHT AFTER THE
OTHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING TWO VERY STRONG LOWS APPROACHING THE
ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE BUT COULD
BE LOOKING AT A NUMBER OF WIND WARNINGS COMING UP LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 150
         GALES 120 125 130 132 155 172 175 180
         FREEZING SPRAY 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW NOV 08