Small Craft Advisory 913, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211949 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

CORRECTED HEADLINE 132

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND
MOVE ONSHORE 80 NM EAST OF CORDOVA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING
A 983 MB LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK. BY SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL WEAKEN
TO 988 MB AND MOVE INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. LOCAL WINDS TO 30 KT
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
700 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
700 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO COME TOGETHER ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE 00Z GFS HAS INCREASED THE SPEED OF THE LOW IN THE
BERING UNTIL IT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS WAS STILL THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR TODAY SINCE IT DOES NOT VARY TOO DIFFERENTLY
AND THE GFS HAS SLIGHTLY MORE DETAIL THAN THE ECMWF.  THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALL THE WAY OUT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IT HAS
BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE MAINLAND FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND IS BEGINNING
TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE IN THE BERING BREAKS DOWN.
THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS AIDED BY THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA.  THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY A 140 KNOT JET MAX JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...AS THIS JET MAX MOVES EASTWARD THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND COMBINE WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN MAINLAND.  AT THE SURFACE THE LOW IN THE BERING IS STILL VERY
STRONG WHILE THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY.
 AS THE ZONAL JET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS PUSHES THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE REGION THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY.  THE SHIFT OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.  THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY TO THE
ENTIRE MAINLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP CAN BE SEEN ON
RADAR THIS MORNING...A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW MOVING UP THE COOK INLET AND
MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND A HEAVIER AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  BOTH OF THESE FEATURES
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THE AREA
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY IS THE ONE TO THE EAST...AS THE LOW SLOWLY
BROADENS AND DRIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CONDITIONS ON THE KENAI WILL
IMPROVE AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL GET ITS FIRST SHOT OF SNOW IN
QUITE A WHILE.  THE LOW IS BRINGING SOME WARMER AIR TO THE EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN
CORDOVA TODAY.  HOWEVER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN SNOW.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN MAINLAND WILL
REMAIN CLEAR AND COLD FOR A FEW SHORT HOURS THIS MORNING BUT WILL
RAPIDLY CLOUD OVER AS THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MERGE.
THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
CONDITIONS WILL GET RAPIDLY COLDER AGAIN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES
IN BEHIND THE LOW.  WHILE WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
ENHANCING THE NORTHERLY FLOW.  THIS LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS
IS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STORMY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING A ZONAL JET
TO THE ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL CAUSE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE REGION.  GALE FORCE WINDS AT LEAST CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
MARINES AND SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER THE MAINLAND AS IT APPEARS THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 150 155 165 170 172 175 176 179 180
         STORM 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF NOV 08