Gale Warning 739, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211252
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND
MOVE ONSHORE 80 NM EAST OF CORDOVA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING
A 983 MB LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK. BY SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL WEAKEN
TO 988 MB AND MOVE INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. LOCAL WINDS TO 30 KT
OPPOSITE CHANNELED TERRAIN DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
135 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...GULF/NE PACIFIC LOW COMPLEX HAS NOW
MERGED INTO A SINGLE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. REMNANTS OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW ARE PUSHING NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
BAND OF SNOW FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE ANCHORAGE/MAT-SU REGION. SNOW IS GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT RADAR
ECHOES INDICATE GREATER INTENSITY SNOW ON THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IS
STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE
COPPER BASIN...BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING LOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. COLD ADVECTION
INDUCED WINDS AREA AFFECTING SOME LOCATIONS...BUT A DEEP SURFACE
BASED INVERSION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS KEEPING THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A LARGE COLD CORE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN ASIA INTO THE SEA
OF OKHOTSK. A STRONG JET WITH ESTIMATED MAX SPEED AROUND 180KT
EXTENDS FROM JAPAN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
JET IS DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND LOCATION OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
THIS LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE BERING
SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN UNDER SUCH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH SYNOPTIC
POSITIONS...BUT SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BERING SEA SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE GFS IN THE GULF BECAUSE
IT HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE NAM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. OUT
WEST...LIKE THE GENERAL IDEA OF MULTIPLE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
AS THE STRONG UPPER JET DRIVES EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
HOWEVER...BEYOND 48 HOURS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH EVOLUTION OF
THESE TRIPLE POINT LOWS AS WELL AS ENTRANCE OF NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
OUT WEST. THUS...CHANGES TO FORECAST WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FIRST
48 TO 60 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO END AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE A LOCAL AREAS
OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. IF ACCUMULATION OCCURS IT
WILL BE VERY MINOR. A TRIPLE POINT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING
SEA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ARE IN QUESTION...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS SYSTEM WONT HANG AROUND LONG AS THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE. SO IT WILL LIKELY EXIT SUNDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM COMES
INTO THE PICTURE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLD ADVECTION WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD...ENDING MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION. THE
BERING SEA SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH...IMPACTING ONLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ANOTHER BERING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY. WITH LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS DETAILS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME.

BERING SEA ALEUTIANS...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA TONIGHT AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. TRIPLE POINT LOWS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
AS THE JET MOVES EASTWARD. THUS THE PARENT LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STRONG STORM MOVING TO THE ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AND LIKELY REPLAYING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A VERY PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL LEAD TO A VERY STORMY EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE DETAILS OF THESE STORMS VERY
FAR OUT IN TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...179 185.
         GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 08