Gale Warning 694, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 220009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 MB LOW NEAR 57N 176W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 161W SATURDAY
MORNING AT 985 MB AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 51N 171E TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 967 MB AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 56N 175W SUNDAY. A 983 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 51N
170W SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR 55N 162W AT 975 MB SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 221237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 MB LOW NEAR 56N 168W WEAKENS TO 990 MB SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. A 986 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175E INTENSIFIES TO 966 MB
SUN AFTERNOON NEAR 57N 177W AND BECOMES STATIONARY. AN ASSOCIATED LOW
INTENSIFIES TO 964 MB AS IT MOVES TO 56N 160W SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...
 EAST 0F 171W AND NORTH OF 57N...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO        
   VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
 EAST OF 171W AND SOUTH OF 57N...W WIND 30KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN    
   THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 230003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 MB LOW WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS EVENING NEAR
CHIGNIK AND WEAKEN TO 996 MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
TONIGHT. A 980 MB NEAR 52N 178E WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 179W AT 968 MB
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR 55N 173W AS IT SLOWLY
WEAKENS TO 972 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 972 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE INLAND
NEAR PORT HEIDEN MONDAY MORNING AT 968 MB. 

$$

PKZ411-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NE 40 TO 50 KT AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 45 KT...STRONGEST EAST. SEAS 18 TO 25 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 40 INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AROUND 
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING W 20 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 
TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
W. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 24 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
W OF 166W. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT...HIGHEST W. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT...BECOMING W 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
W OF 166W AND S OF 56N. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
135 PM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...GULF/NE PACIFIC LOW COMPLEX HAS NOW
MERGED INTO A SINGLE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. REMNANTS OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW ARE PUSHING NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
BAND OF SNOW FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD TO THE KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE ANCHORAGE/MAT-SU REGION. SNOW IS GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT RADAR
ECHOES INDICATE GREATER INTENSITY SNOW ON THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW IS
STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE
COPPER BASIN...BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING LOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. COLD ADVECTION
INDUCED WINDS AREA AFFECTING SOME LOCATIONS...BUT A DEEP SURFACE
BASED INVERSION ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS KEEPING THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A LARGE COLD CORE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN ASIA INTO THE SEA
OF OKHOTSK. A STRONG JET WITH ESTIMATED MAX SPEED AROUND 180KT
EXTENDS FROM JAPAN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS
JET IS DRIVING A SURFACE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET AND LOCATION OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
THIS LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE BERING
SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN UNDER SUCH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH SYNOPTIC
POSITIONS...BUT SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BERING SEA SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE GFS IN THE GULF BECAUSE
IT HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE NAM THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. OUT
WEST...LIKE THE GENERAL IDEA OF MULTIPLE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
AS THE STRONG UPPER JET DRIVES EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
HOWEVER...BEYOND 48 HOURS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH EVOLUTION OF
THESE TRIPLE POINT LOWS AS WELL AS ENTRANCE OF NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
OUT WEST. THUS...CHANGES TO FORECAST WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FIRST
48 TO 60 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO END AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH LEFT OVER MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GENERATE A LOCAL AREAS
OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. IF ACCUMULATION OCCURS IT
WILL BE VERY MINOR. A TRIPLE POINT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING
SEA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ARE IN QUESTION...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS SYSTEM WONT HANG AROUND LONG AS THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY
PROGRESSIVE. SO IT WILL LIKELY EXIT SUNDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM COMES
INTO THE PICTURE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...COLD ADVECTION WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD...ENDING MOST OF THE COLD ADVECTION. THE
BERING SEA SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH...IMPACTING ONLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. ANOTHER BERING STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA SUNDAY. WITH LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS DETAILS ARE NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME.

BERING SEA ALEUTIANS...STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA TONIGHT AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. TRIPLE POINT LOWS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
AS THE JET MOVES EASTWARD. THUS THE PARENT LOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STRONG STORM MOVING TO THE ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AND LIKELY REPLAYING A SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPMENT IN A VERY DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A VERY PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH A
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL LEAD TO A VERY STORMY EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE DETAILS OF THESE STORMS VERY
FAR OUT IN TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...179 185.
         GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 175 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 08