Small Craft Advisory 813, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 212240
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 1006 MB LOW 75 NM NORTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE 90 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUE EVENING.
A 961 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL INTENSIFY TO 951 MB 75 NM
SOUTH OF ADAK TUE NIGHT THEN 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THU
MORNING. A 984 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WED
EVENING AND INTENSIFY TO 971 MB IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 45 TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 15 FT.
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SOUTHEAST 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-221400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING EAST 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO N 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
21 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-221400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 70 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-221400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 40 TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE. THE STORM
CENTER THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON INTENSITY OF
STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS TUE...THERE ARE STILL ISSUES
WITH SPEED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FASTER MOVEMENT. CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF CURRENT PATTERN...WE FEEL THAT THE GFS SPEED
IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO REALITY.

.UPPER LEVELS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF MOVES INTO CANADA TONIGHT. A SHARPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO 45N 160W AND SOUTHWARD WILL ROTATE
EAST TO EXTEND SE ACROSS THE MAINLAND TO OVER SE ALASKA WED
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN. BY
THU...A COLD LOW SETS UP OVER THE MAINLAND WITH TROUGHS EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...A WEAK TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND SHOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GULF LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST AS DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE GULF. THIS STORM CENTER IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS WILL BE USED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
STRONG LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT WITH A
PRESSURE IN THE 960S. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT WED AFTERNOON. GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT AND GALES TO STORMS/STORM
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTER WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER
MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THERE WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG GAP
FLOWS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTH GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.WEST...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR THIS EVENING
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL SW
ALASKA/BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT. A LOW CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING
SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR UNIMAK PASS TUE AFTERNOON. BRISK WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CENTER AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OPEN/CLOSED CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AK PEN TUE. A DEVELOPING W PACIFIC LOW WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 950S AS IT CROSSES THE DATE LINE NEAR 49N TUE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE OVERALL BEST
SOLUTION...WITH A FASTER TRACK PREFERRED. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WED NIGHT. STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS PUBLIC ZONES 191 AND 187. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCHES STARTING TUE AFTERNOON/EVE AND CONTINUE INTO WED. ANY BLOWING
SNOW SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF LOW
CENTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LOW SOUTH OF AK PEN WED NIGHT MOVES INTO THE
GULF THU WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TRIPLE POINT MOVING INTO THE NE
GULF THU AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COLD ADVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THU WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND GAP FLOWS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/GULF THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MAINLAND THU AND FRI AS COLD
AS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 187 185 AND 191 TO BE INITIATED AT 4PM
MONDAY.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175. STORMS 172 176. GALES 120 130 132 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 08