Gale Warning 596, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 211125 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 982 MB LOW AT 48N 150W WILL MOVE TO 57N 142W LATE TUE NIGHT 
AND DEEPEN TO 967 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 61N 138W AT 
972 MB WED AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A 957 MB LOW AT 
52N 169W WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 53N 158W BY LATE WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-220200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E TO NE WIND 25 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N TO NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 212255
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 53N 145W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 967 MB NEAR 58N 142W
TUE NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND NEAR 60N 140W WED EVENING. A
984 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 55N 154W WED EVENING AND INTENSIFY TO
971 MB NEAR 59N 146W THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE. THE STORM
CENTER THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON INTENSITY OF
STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS TUE...THERE ARE STILL ISSUES
WITH SPEED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FASTER MOVEMENT. CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF CURRENT PATTERN...WE FEEL THAT THE GFS SPEED
IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO REALITY.

.UPPER LEVELS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF MOVES INTO CANADA TONIGHT. A SHARPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO 45N 160W AND SOUTHWARD WILL ROTATE
EAST TO EXTEND SE ACROSS THE MAINLAND TO OVER SE ALASKA WED
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN. BY
THU...A COLD LOW SETS UP OVER THE MAINLAND WITH TROUGHS EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...A WEAK TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND SHOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GULF LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST AS DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE GULF. THIS STORM CENTER IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS WILL BE USED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
STRONG LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT WITH A
PRESSURE IN THE 960S. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT WED AFTERNOON. GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT AND GALES TO STORMS/STORM
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTER WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER
MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THERE WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG GAP
FLOWS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTH GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.WEST...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR THIS EVENING
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL SW
ALASKA/BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT. A LOW CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING
SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR UNIMAK PASS TUE AFTERNOON. BRISK WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CENTER AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OPEN/CLOSED CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AK PEN TUE. A DEVELOPING W PACIFIC LOW WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 950S AS IT CROSSES THE DATE LINE NEAR 49N TUE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE OVERALL BEST
SOLUTION...WITH A FASTER TRACK PREFERRED. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WED NIGHT. STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS PUBLIC ZONES 191 AND 187. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCHES STARTING TUE AFTERNOON/EVE AND CONTINUE INTO WED. ANY BLOWING
SNOW SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF LOW
CENTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LOW SOUTH OF AK PEN WED NIGHT MOVES INTO THE
GULF THU WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TRIPLE POINT MOVING INTO THE NE
GULF THU AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COLD ADVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THU WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND GAP FLOWS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/GULF THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MAINLAND THU AND FRI AS COLD
AS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 187 185 AND 191 TO BE INITIATED AT 4PM
MONDAY.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175. STORMS 172 176. GALES 120 130 132 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 08