Storm Warning 124, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 212241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 56M 166W WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR 55N 160W BY THU MORNING. A 961 MB LOW NEAR 48N 176W
WILL INTENSIFY TO 951 MB NEAR 50N 177W TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE NEAR
53N 148W THU MORNING. A 984 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 55N 154W WED
EVENING AND INTENSIFY TO 971 MB IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THU
AFTERNOON. A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 57N 170E WED AFTERNOON AND
MOVE TO 56N 180 BY THU AFTERNOON. 


$$

PKZ411-221400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 35 TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO S 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-221400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 221147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 946 MB LOW AT 51N 176W THIS MORNING MOVES TO 52N 168W THIS
AFTERNOON AT 960 MB. THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO 
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU MORNING. A 1006 MB LOW AT 56N 173E
LATE TONIGHT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-230200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.

.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 222344
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR 52N 168W WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TO 974 MB NEAR
55N 150W THU MORNING THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THU
AFTERNOON. A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 55N 172E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 52N 179W
THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.

.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-231400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON OCT 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE. THE STORM
CENTER THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON INTENSITY OF
STORM CENTER APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS TUE...THERE ARE STILL ISSUES
WITH SPEED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FASTER MOVEMENT. CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF CURRENT PATTERN...WE FEEL THAT THE GFS SPEED
IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO REALITY.

.UPPER LEVELS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH OVER THE
GULF MOVES INTO CANADA TONIGHT. A SHARPENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A
LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TO 45N 160W AND SOUTHWARD WILL ROTATE
EAST TO EXTEND SE ACROSS THE MAINLAND TO OVER SE ALASKA WED
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN. BY
THU...A COLD LOW SETS UP OVER THE MAINLAND WITH TROUGHS EXTENDING SW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...A WEAK TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND SHOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GULF LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST AS DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NE PACIFIC APPROACHES THE GULF. THIS STORM CENTER IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE MODELS AND THE 12Z GFS WILL BE USED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A
STRONG LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT WITH A
PRESSURE IN THE 960S. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND
NEAR YAKUTAT WED AFTERNOON. GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT AND GALES TO STORMS/STORM
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTER WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER
MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT AND WED. THERE WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY STRONG GAP
FLOWS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTH GULF DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.WEST...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW INTERIOR THIS EVENING
AND BRING LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL SW
ALASKA/BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT. A LOW CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING
SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR UNIMAK PASS TUE AFTERNOON. BRISK WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CENTER AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OPEN/CLOSED CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN AK PEN TUE. A DEVELOPING W PACIFIC LOW WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 950S AS IT CROSSES THE DATE LINE NEAR 49N TUE
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE OVERALL BEST
SOLUTION...WITH A FASTER TRACK PREFERRED. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WED NIGHT. STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS PUBLIC ZONES 191 AND 187. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCHES STARTING TUE AFTERNOON/EVE AND CONTINUE INTO WED. ANY BLOWING
SNOW SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF LOW
CENTER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LOW SOUTH OF AK PEN WED NIGHT MOVES INTO THE
GULF THU WITH A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TRIPLE POINT MOVING INTO THE NE
GULF THU AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COLD ADVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN GULF THU WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GULF AND GAP FLOWS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/GULF THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MAINLAND THU AND FRI AS COLD
AS COLD UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 187 185 AND 191 TO BE INITIATED AT 4PM
MONDAY.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 175. STORMS 172 176. GALES 120 130 132 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 08