Small Craft Advisory 696, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE NEW GFS MODEL HAD SPED UP THE LOW MOVE ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND SO IT IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL. SO THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AND MORE IN THE ECMWF
WHICH HAD THE FASTER SOLUTION. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF BEYOND THAT
POINT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY CONTINUED TO
BE VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE AND APPEARS TO HAVE
STALLED. A UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. A 300 MB JET IS FORMING BETWEEN THESE TO
SYSTEMS OVER KODIAK ISLAND THE THE WESTERN GULF.

THE WEATHER FRONT OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, KODIAK ISLAND
AND SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. RAIN HAS BEGUN TO FALL OVER
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE STALLED UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST
TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH
OF ATTU AND STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 250 MILES
SOUTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GUSTY EAST WINDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE STORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST,JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF, THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN TURN NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 138, 140, 170, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 08