Gale Warning 533, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 132304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 162W WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHWEST SAT 
NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 146W MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-141400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-141400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE NEW GFS MODEL HAD SPED UP THE LOW MOVE ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND SO IT IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL. SO THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AND MORE IN THE ECMWF
WHICH HAD THE FASTER SOLUTION. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF BEYOND THAT
POINT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY CONTINUED TO
BE VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE AND APPEARS TO HAVE
STALLED. A UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. A 300 MB JET IS FORMING BETWEEN THESE TO
SYSTEMS OVER KODIAK ISLAND THE THE WESTERN GULF.

THE WEATHER FRONT OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, KODIAK ISLAND
AND SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. RAIN HAS BEGUN TO FALL OVER
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE STALLED UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST
TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH
OF ATTU AND STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 250 MILES
SOUTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GUSTY EAST WINDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE STORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST,JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF, THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN TURN NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 138, 140, 170, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 08