Gale Warning 534, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 131133 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 54N 162W THIS MORNING MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH 
AS IT MOVES TO 58N 163W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN REMAINS 
NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 999 MB SUN NIGHT.  A 990 MB 
LOW AT 52N 166E THIS MORNING MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES 
TO 49N 178E...THEN SOUTHEAST FURTHER INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

$$

PKZ411-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. 

.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW TO NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...W TO N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NW TO NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW TO NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-140200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...W TO NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 132303
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 162W WILL DRIFT TO 58N 164W AT 1001 MB SUN
NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE MON. A 993 MB LOW NEAR 50N 174E WILL MOVE TO
48N 175W SAT NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST.

$$

PKZ411-141400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-141400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-141400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-141400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE NEW GFS MODEL HAD SPED UP THE LOW MOVE ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND SO IT IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL. SO THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AND MORE IN THE ECMWF
WHICH HAD THE FASTER SOLUTION. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF BEYOND THAT
POINT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY CONTINUED TO
BE VERTICALLY STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE FEATURE AND APPEARS TO HAVE
STALLED. A UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL CONTINUES
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. A 300 MB JET IS FORMING BETWEEN THESE TO
SYSTEMS OVER KODIAK ISLAND THE THE WESTERN GULF.

THE WEATHER FRONT OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, KODIAK ISLAND
AND SOUTHWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. RAIN HAS BEGUN TO FALL OVER
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE STALLED UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST
TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BENEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WEATHER
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
WITH THE RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH
OF ATTU AND STRENGTHEN TO 985 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 250 MILES
SOUTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND GUSTY EAST WINDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE STORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST,JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF, THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN TURN NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 138, 140, 170, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 08