Small Craft Advisory 62, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL TODAY AND THERE ARE NO
MAJOR PROBLEMS APPARENT WITH ANY OF THE FOUR MAJOR ONES. THE LARGE
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS DIFFERENT PAST 66 HOURS BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON ANYTHING EXCEPT THE BERING SEA OFFSHORE FORECASTS. THE GFS LOOKS
TO HAVE A STABLE SOLUTION THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLUTIONS AND
IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY IS NOW
WEAKENING IN NORTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA BUILDS EASTWARD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 40N 170E. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO
NEAR KISKA WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND AREA FROM THE WEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING
SNOW TO THAT AREA THAT SPREADS INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEFORE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LOW MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK
INLET. THE LOW WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ALSO MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG LOW TO CONTEND
WITH. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INTO ZONES 187 AND 191
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THEN TURN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHERE THE FRONT WITH THIS LOW PUSHES
INTO THE ARCTIC FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE STATE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE SURFACE LOWS WILL TREND
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL LARGELY
CONFINE SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING INLAND THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 121 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 180
185.
         STORM 130 172 179.
         HURRICANE FORCE 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08