Hurricane Force Wind Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 240026
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 965 MB LOW 75 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON AND THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 1010 MB 100 NM WEST
OF CAPE NEWENHAM FRI AFTERNOON. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-241500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-241500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-241500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-241500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-241500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.  
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-241500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-241500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-241500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-241500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-241500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-241500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-241500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL TODAY AND THERE ARE NO
MAJOR PROBLEMS APPARENT WITH ANY OF THE FOUR MAJOR ONES. THE LARGE
LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS DIFFERENT PAST 66 HOURS BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON ANYTHING EXCEPT THE BERING SEA OFFSHORE FORECASTS. THE GFS LOOKS
TO HAVE A STABLE SOLUTION THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLUTIONS AND
IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO A
LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT THROUGH TODAY IS NOW
WEAKENING IN NORTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CROSS INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA BUILDS EASTWARD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 40N 170E. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE TO
NEAR KISKA WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND AREA FROM THE WEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING
SNOW TO THAT AREA THAT SPREADS INTO BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
AND THEN THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING BEFORE THE MOISTURE FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA LOW MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTHERN COOK
INLET. THE LOW WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ALSO MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE ANOTHER STRONG LOW TO CONTEND
WITH. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INTO ZONES 187 AND 191
AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THEN TURN SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHERE THE FRONT WITH THIS LOW PUSHES
INTO THE ARCTIC FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE STATE LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE SURFACE LOWS WILL TREND
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL LARGELY
CONFINE SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING INLAND THROUGH
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 121 125 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 180
185.
         STORM 130 172 179.
         HURRICANE FORCE 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08