Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN NICE AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. NO
MAJOR PROBLEMS THROUGH 100 HOURS. NAM LEAVES A RESIDUAL LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CORDOVA AT 72 HOURS WHERE THE GFS JUST HAS A TROUGH BUT THAT
SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE FORECASTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW THAT WAS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA YESTERDAY IS NOW EAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND CONTINUING
OUT OF THE AREA. A STRONG JET MAX RIDING OVER THE RIDGE BEHIND THIS
LOW AND ENHANCING THE WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. VERY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS JET MAX IS ALSO ENHANCING WINDS.

IN THE WEST...A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA IS
PLOWING INTO THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN WINDS GUSTING
TO 74 KT AT BUOY 46070 IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. 44 FT SEAS HAVE
ALSO BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS STORM AT THAT BUOY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH IT AND A LONG DUE SOUTH JET CAN BE
SEEN ON THE SATELLITE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...THE SNOW IN EASTERN ALASKA WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY HAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL. CHANNELED
TERRAIN WILL SEE STRONG GUSTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MIXING FROM
THE WINDS ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOW DEW
POINTS...WILL KEEP ANY FOG OR STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT.
THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT IT
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. A TOUGH CALL RIGHT NOW IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO CREATE A BLIZZARD ALONG THE COAST IN
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THURSDAY. THIS AREA COULD BE A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY IF NOT A BLIZZARD. THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE LOOKING VERY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY THROUGH TODAY. THE CURRENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND GIVE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN TODAYS STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
         BLIZZARD WARNING 195.
MARINE...GALE 121 129 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 180.
         STORM 130 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08