Small Craft Advisory 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
340 PM AST THU JAN 17 2008

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z GFS MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE MORE IN SYNC WITH
12Z NAM FROM ANALYSIS THROUGH 36 HRS WITH LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND.
PREVIOUS MODEL VERSIONS HAD LOW EITHER TOO FAR EAST OR WEST VERSUS
NAM POSITIONING. STICKING WITH 12Z NAM OVER EASTERN DOMAIN AND 12Z
GFS OVER WESTERN DOMAIN THROUGH 36 HRS AND THEN GOING WITH 12Z GFS
FOR THE REST OF PERIOD OVER ENTIRE DOMAIN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER JET INTENSIFIES OVER ALEUTIANS
CHAIN STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND REACHES 150 KT OVER EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG STORM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
DEEPEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS STORM DEEPENS A RESULTING STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED OVER EASTERN BERING SEA AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. 12Z GFS SPLITS
THE ENERGY OF THE STRONG STORM IN SUCH A WAY THAT THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR WESTERN DOMAIN. HOWEVER,
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH GUSTS AROUND 65 MPH OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 170 172 175 179 185 411 412 414.
         GALE 120 130 150 155 160 165 171 176 180 413.
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JWP JAN 08