Gale Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171232
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 54N 180 WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. A 955 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 
46N 177W FRI MORNING. IT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND MOVE TO 50N 176W
BY FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM MODEL DID WELL YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING AS
IT WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO LOCK ONTO THE POLAR LOW THAT WAS SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR YESTERDAY AND BRING IT TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY
TODAY. THIS MAY BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE GFS AND NAM
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF ANOTHER LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM KEEP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT WEAKER AND MOVES THE LOW NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY IN A DATA VOID AREA OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC SO IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
HANDLING IT. IT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE A STRENGTH SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IN THE BERING SEA THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE
SIMILAR WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. AT
THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS COMPLEX
LOW AND WHICH LOW CENTER WILL BE THE MAIN CENTER AND WHICH ONES WILL
BE WEAKER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...JET STREAM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AS IT RIDES OVER A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 50N 160W CAN BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A LOW SPINNING AROUND NORTH OF
AMCHITKA THAT IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS BUT DOES NOT HAVE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. FOG AND OR STRATUS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING FROM
BRISTOL BAY ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH FRESH SNOWFALL
AND CLEARING SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND PRIBILOFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LARGE PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH AMPLITUDE WARM RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND A JET STREAK WILL RUN SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
160W FROM 40N INTO NORTHERN ALASKA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND GREATLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TO 2 TO
4 DEGREES C ABOVE. THE RESULT WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN IN BRISTOL BAY
AND A CHINOOK EVENT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE. BRISTOL BAY ANS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AS
THIS WARM WET SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08