Gale Warning 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 180008
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST THU JAN 17 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 180 WILL MOVE TO 60N 179W FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WAKENING TO 997 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW
NEAR 50N 166W WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING 980 MB LOW
NEAR 40N 179E WILL MOVE TO 48N 177W FRIDAY EVENING STRENGTHENING TO
953 MB. IT WILL THEN MOVE TO 56N 180 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO
957 MB.
$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST THU JAN 17 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 181235
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 55N 176E WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY FRI. ON FRI
AFTERNOON A  960 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 48N 176W. IT WILL STRENGTHEN TO
956 MB AND MOVE TO 57N 180 BY SAT AFTERNOON. BY SAT NIGHT IT WILL
WEAKEN TO 969 MB AND MOVE TO 61N 179W.

$$

PKZ411-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-190300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM MODEL DID WELL YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING AS
IT WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO LOCK ONTO THE POLAR LOW THAT WAS SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR YESTERDAY AND BRING IT TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY
TODAY. THIS MAY BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE GFS AND NAM
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF ANOTHER LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM KEEP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
STRONGER THAN THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT WEAKER AND MOVES THE LOW NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY IN A DATA VOID AREA OF THE
NORTH PACIFIC SO IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
HANDLING IT. IT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE A STRENGTH SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IN THE BERING SEA THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE
SIMILAR WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. AT
THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS COMPLEX
LOW AND WHICH LOW CENTER WILL BE THE MAIN CENTER AND WHICH ONES WILL
BE WEAKER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...JET STREAM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AS IT RIDES OVER A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 50N 160W CAN BE
SEEN ON SATELLITE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT. WEST OF THIS SYSTEM THERE IS A LOW SPINNING AROUND NORTH OF
AMCHITKA THAT IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS BUT DOES NOT HAVE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING FOR THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. FOG AND OR STRATUS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING FROM
BRISTOL BAY ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH FRESH SNOWFALL
AND CLEARING SKIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND PRIBILOFS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LARGE PUSH OF WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND. A HIGH AMPLITUDE WARM RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND A JET STREAK WILL RUN SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG
160W FROM 40N INTO NORTHERN ALASKA BY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME A STRONG
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND GREATLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION TO 2 TO
4 DEGREES C ABOVE. THE RESULT WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN IN BRISTOL BAY
AND A CHINOOK EVENT SATURDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE. BRISTOL BAY ANS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AS
THIS WARM WET SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08