Small Craft Advisory 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE JUN 3 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN SO GREAT. THE PROBLEMS
ESSENTIALLY ARE HOW THEY HANDLE A LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ALASKA
AND THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT. SUBTROPICAL JET IS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
LOW AND POINTED AT OREGON AND WASHINGTON. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUKON
AND STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA FROM EAST TO WEST. DEEP LOW
OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST SIBERIA WITH A STRONG POLAR JET NUDGING INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SHOWERY REGIME.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO KICK OUT AS THE POLAR
JET PUSHES A LOW INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. BY THURSDAY THIS LOW
WILL BE OVER BRISTOL BAY. IT WILL PUSH COLD AIR INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE INLAND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO START BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EXECUTION OF
THESE EVENTS AND THE LOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. EVEN WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...AND SUNNIER THAN IT HAS SO FAR THIS MONTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WARNING 141.

LUDWIG JUN 08