Small Craft Advisory 472, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM ADT MON JUN 2 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AGAIN BEING USED FOR SHORT TERM SPECIFICS. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CURRENTLY 100 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. STRONGER WINDS AND
HEAVIER PRECIP ARE MOVING ONTO THE NORTH GULF COAST AHEAD OF A FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF LIFTS NORTH AND
DISSIPATES ONCE IT CRASHES ON-SHORE EARLY TUESDAY. E-W GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH WINDS HIGHER THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUE AS THE
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT RELAXES. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE ON WED AS THE GULF LOW DISSIPATES. FURTHER WEST...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE BERING WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS AND FOG.

A WELL ADVERTISED LOW DROPS OUT OF SIBERIA INTO THE NORTHERN BERING
ON WED. MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TRACKING A
SFC LOW TOWARD NORTON SOUND WHILE SWINGING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ONTO
THE SW ALASKA COAST WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. SNOW MAY EVEN
HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SW PART OF THE STATE. IT
LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY...THEN W/NW
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE NEXT
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. OFF-SHORE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A QUICK
REBOUND OF TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA