Small Craft Advisory 204, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
420 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH DEPTH
AND POSITIONS OF LOWS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE TRACK OF THE DEEP LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. THE
GFS SHOWS THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND CURRENT FORECAST WAS
BASED OFF THE GFS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT SOLUTION. THERE IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT LOW IN LINE (CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
UPPER JET). UKMET/ECMWF HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW INTO THE GULF SATURDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER IN LATEST
RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE HAS TRENDED SLOWER. UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS LOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH
WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD LOW EAST OF KODIAK WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD COOK INLET AND INLAND TODAY. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FAR SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 DRAWING UP
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WARMTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING NEAR COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAVY RAIN ON
TOP OF LINGERING AND FRESH SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THIS MORNING
WITH FROPA ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE IN
THE NEAR TERM CLOSE TO THE PRIBILOFS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A LOT OF WARM AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW SO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW...SO SNOW WILL DOMINATE. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LIKELY MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ONE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS THOUGH. THERE WILL BE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW IT COULD HELP COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LITTLE BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EVEN FURTHER ALONG IN ITS LIFE
CYCLE...SO WINDS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS OF A PROBLEM AND WARMER AIR
WILL BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER.

THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN A SNOW/SNOW SHOWER REGIME
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AS THE LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH NEAR ZONAL JET REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THUS...THE MAINLAND MAY SEE A BREAK FROM ANY LARGE STORMS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK WEST TO EAST. THIS
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 130
         GALES 125 129 132
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW MAR 08