Gale Warning 236, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081226
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 MB LOW 57N 169W WILL MOVE TO 57N 165W SAT NIGHT AT 994 MB AND
DISSIPATE SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 TO 
7 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1245 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA. THERE IS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
GULF CONTINUING TO STEER STORMS NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA. THE
STRONG LOWS THAT HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
HAVE HELPED PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC/GULF OF
ALASKA EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE LATEST SYSTEM WHICH IS NOW LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHWARD. OCCLUSION EXTENDS
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OBSERVATIONS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA INDICATE WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.
ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS ALONG WESTERN TURNAGAIN ARM ARE INCREASING

AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND THE EAST-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL HAS BEEN RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING
WITH SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARMER
AIR IS PUSHING ONSHORE WITH THE OCCLUSION...SO THERE IS AN ONGOING
WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CHANGE MOST AREAS TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED UP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST A COUPLE DAYS
AGO HAS BECOME A WEAK LOW NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND. THERE IS SNOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND COLD ADVECTION WEST OF THE LOW IS
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO THE ALEUTIANS.

THE NEXT LOW IN LINE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING
DOWN ALONG THE JET NEAR 40N 165W.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS VERIFYING WELL WITH CURRENT SYSTEMS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWARD...BUT MODELS INDICATE IT WILL CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
HEAD OVER COOK INLET AND ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS CURVING FROM THE YUKON
WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN ALASKA THIS TRACK MAKES SENSE SO WILL
STICK WITH IT UNLESS SEE EVIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL NOT CURVE TO
THE NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF
ARE MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN SO AM GAINING A BIT
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. THE ONE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THE LOW TRACKS
INLAND WHERE PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED IT WOULD STALL OVER THE GULF.
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE CHANGING THIS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO COOK INLET THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG WESTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM AND ENHANCE DOWNSLOPING OVER ANCHORAGE. WITH A WEAKENING LOW
AND FRONT EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AS
THE LOW MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER
IN...SO EXPECT RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE RAPID PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 10 MB OVER
A THREE HOUR PERIOD OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING MOVING INLAND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
UPSLOPE AREAS OF NORTHERN PRINCE WILLIAMS SOUND AND THE SUSITNA
VALLEY WILL SEE SOME ENHANCED WET SNOWFALL. A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW SO THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION WITH NEXT LOW WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY. AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND...EXPECT THIS LOW TO TRACK FARTHER EAST THAN CURRENT LOW.
SO WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH WARM AIR ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EXPECT MINOR SNOWFALL...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS INLAND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL PROVIDE
A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW NORTH OF SAINT PAUL WILL GRADUALLY
SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE LAST IN A LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A LESS AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT BERING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER AND CALMER ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA. MEANWHILE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS PACIFIC STORMS ARE STEERED TOWARD THE
REGION. OF COURSE...ALL OF THESE CHANGES LOOK TEMPORARY. THE
HEMISPHERIC WAVE PATTERN LOOKS UNSTABLE...SO PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 125 130 132.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 08