Storm Warning 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 080048
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-081500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF KENAI WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
INLAND FRI EVENING. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 450 NM
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON AT 973 MB. THE LOW WILL 
THEN WEAKEN TO 979 MB AS IT MOVES TO 70 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON 
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-081500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-081500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY THIS EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-081500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-081500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-081500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-081500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-081500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-081500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.


$$

PKZ141-081500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
420 AM AST FRI MAR 7 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL WITH DEPTH
AND POSITIONS OF LOWS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE TRACK OF THE DEEP LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. THE
GFS SHOWS THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND CURRENT FORECAST WAS
BASED OFF THE GFS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT SOLUTION. THERE IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT LOW IN LINE (CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
UPPER JET). UKMET/ECMWF HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW INTO THE GULF SATURDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER IN LATEST
RUNS. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE HAS TRENDED SLOWER. UNTIL MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS LOW WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH
WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD LOW EAST OF KODIAK WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD COOK INLET AND INLAND TODAY. THE FRONT EXTENDS
FAR SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 DRAWING UP
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WARMTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING NEAR COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAVY RAIN ON
TOP OF LINGERING AND FRESH SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THIS MORNING
WITH FROPA ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE IN
THE NEAR TERM CLOSE TO THE PRIBILOFS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A LOT OF WARM AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW SO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE LOW...SO SNOW WILL DOMINATE. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND LIKELY MAINTAIN
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ONE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS THOUGH. THERE WILL BE COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO IF PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW IT COULD HELP COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LITTLE BREAK BETWEEN
SYSTEMS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EVEN FURTHER ALONG IN ITS LIFE
CYCLE...SO WINDS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS OF A PROBLEM AND WARMER AIR
WILL BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER.

THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN IN A SNOW/SNOW SHOWER REGIME
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AS THE LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH NEAR ZONAL JET REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THUS...THE MAINLAND MAY SEE A BREAK FROM ANY LARGE STORMS WHICH
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK WEST TO EAST. THIS
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA TO RETURN TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 130
         GALES 125 129 132
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW MAR 08