Gale Warning 605, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING ADEQUATE OVERALL. THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND WHERE THE SYSTEMS WILL BE
HEADING THROUGH THE NEXT THREE OR FOUR DAYS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE
IN DETAILS WITH THE SYSTEMS WHICH WILL IMPACT SOME LOCAL AREAS BUT
OVERALL THEY ARE NOT TOO BAD.

.ANALYSIS UPPER LEVELS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE STATE IS BRINGING CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE
A LITTLE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA AND A
SHORT WAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW.
IN THE WEST A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE BERING
SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE JET STREAM EXTENDS OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THEN WEAKEN
AS IT HEADS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW ONTO THE WEST
COAST THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FOR MOST
OF THE STATE. MID WEEK LOOKS TO BE WET AND WINDY FOR THE MAINLAND.
EXPECT A LOT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN AS THIS LOW HAS QUITE A
BIT OF WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BY FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD AND THIS SHOULD CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS ALL OVER
AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 08