Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051158
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 999 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST 
AND DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY EVENING. A 999 MB LOW WILL FORM 30 NM 
SOUTH OF WHITTIER SATURDAY EVENING THEN MOVE TO 75 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 1002 MB SUNDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-060200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...MIDDLETON ISLAND E...SE WIND 25 KT. W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...W WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S AND W
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S AND W OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AROUND MIDDAY. SEAS 3 FT 
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 13
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 4 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL PATTERN OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
THE LAST NUMBER OF RUNS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER. THE DIFFERENCE OCCURS IN COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL
RUN OF THE GFS TO THE PREVIOUS ONES AND THIS MORNINGS 12Z GFS RUN.
THE 00Z TRIED TO SPLIT THE ENERGY OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AND SEND SOME OF IT SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER PART
INTO THE YUKON TERRITORIES BY WAY OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE OTHER
RUNS INCLUDING THE MORE CURRENT 12Z RUN ELONGATES THE LOW BEFORE IT
SPLITS IT AND THEN HAS THE NORTHERN LOW STAY JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT THEN PULLS
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE MARINE
FORECASTS AROUND THE GULF AS WELL AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THE NAM MODEL IS DOING THE SAME THING AS THE GFS BUT
BRINGS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT IS ANCHORING A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
DISCUSSED EARLIER A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE ALL
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AFTER A SLIGHT
DELAY ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES. THIS WILL BRING COLDER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO KODIAK. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE IN DRIER AIR
BUT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE
CASE FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
ANCHORAGE AND NEARBY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB ISOTHERMS ARE
NICELY ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH AS ARE THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
VALUES. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT IN IDEAL POSITION BEING JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUND INSTEAD OF IN THE SOUND IT SHOULD SUFFICE TO PUSH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA
WHICH WILL PRODUCE SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS ON
THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THAT TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 140 150 155 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08